EMISSIONS: UKAs Fall On EUAs Losses, Low Trading Interest

{GB}{UKAs Dec25 are edging down, tracking EUAs losses, while low trading interest since open limiting directional momentum.

• UKA DEC 25 down 0.25% at 51.43 GBP/t CO2e
• NBP Gas SEP 25 down 1.2% at 85.33 GBp/therm
• FTSE 100 SEP 25 up 0.6% at 9174.5
• ICE UKA futures daily aggregate traded volume stood at 1,808 contracts in the previous session, down 23.62% compared with the 30-day average.
• The EUA Dec25 premium to the UK equivalent remained at a similar level at €13.11/t CO2e.
• Correlation between EUA/UKA for 30-day period remained high at 0.66.
• Correlation between UKA/FTSE100 for 30-day period at 0.15.
• UK gas demand, including power generation and exports, is forecast at 161 mcm/d, significantly below the five-year average of 171 mcm/d, according to National Grid.
• UK wind output is anticipated to be between 42-60% load factors over 4-5 August, before dropping sharply to between 12-16% load factors over 6-7 August, according to SpotRenewables.
• The latest month-ahead ECMWF weather forecast remained largely at similar level and stood above average from 8 Aug.