EMISSIONS: UKA Positioning Data on ICE Not Yet Available

• So far, the recent troubles at property developer China Vanke have had little impact on the Chinese yuan, which continues to trade in a resilient fashion at fresh cycle highs against the dollar. However, the latest developments are a reminder of challenges in the property sector, which remains a concern to the medium-term macro outlook.
• As a reminder, China Vanke unexpectedly announced late last week that it would delay a bond payment for notes due Dec 15 amid a further slump in property sales this year. The sudden move has raised concerns about the government’s willingness to support even the largest property developers, sending the company’s bonds down sharply amid default fears.
• Despite these developments, spot USDCNH fell to fresh lows of 7.0645 in overnight trade, before some support kicked in. Currently, the pair is little changed on the session around 7.069.
• Recently, the USD/CNY fixing bias turn positive and the fix was set above market estimates again today, indicating a modest push back on yuan appreciation pressures. This may slow yuan gains ahead, even in the absence of further property woes, although moves in USD/CNH above 7.0800 have drawn selling interest so far.
• On the downside, focus will be around the 7.0500 region. We have noted that lower US-China yield differentials and the potential for fresh conversion of foreign currency into CNY as we approach year end is aiding yuan sentiment for now.

A set of analysts have updated / published their Eurozone HICP forecasts over the weekend ahead of tomorrow's bloc-wide print after Friday's releases for the "big four". There has been little change on net with headline tracking between 2.1 to 2.2% Y/Y while core is still expected at 2.4% Y/Y. Despite the limited changes, note also that Deutsche Bank have pushed back the timing of the first rate hike from end-2026 to mid-2027. 

• Barclays: "we track EA headline and core HICP at 2.1% y/y and 2.4% y/y"
• Daiwa: "we expect euro area consumer price inflation to edge back up by 0.1ppt to 2.2%Y/Y. We see core inflation moving sideways in November at 2.4%Y/Y, albeit with upside risks to our forecast given the influence of certain services components on the headline rate"
• Danske: Headline HICP is "likely to stay at 2.1% y/y in line with our initial forecast. Despite the slightly weaker inflation data we do think this changes the outlook for the ECB which still has a strong bias for holding the policy rate steady, which we expect they will do throughout 2026."
• Deutsche Bank: "We expect EA headline HICP to rise marginally to 2.14% YoY. We see core marginally higher as well at 2.42% YoY [...] we now have pushed back the timing of the ECB's first hike from end-2026 to mid-2027. The ECB has been showing signs of a greater willingness to tolerate small deviations in medium-term inflation from target [first published in 2026 world outlook earlier last week]"
• Goldman Sachs: "We downgrade our Euro area headline inflation forecast for November to 2.18%yoy, from 2.21%yoy previously. We also lower our Euro area core inflation forecast by 3bp to 2.41%yoy. This would imply seasonally adjusted sequential core inflation of 0.15%mom in November on our estimates."
• JP Morgan: "we left our Euro area November headline inflation forecast at 2.2%oya (0.2%m/m sa), which would represent a one-tenth increase relative to October. We also left our Euro area core forecast at 2.4%oya, which represents a stable print versus October (0.1%m/m sa). The risks around our Euro area core forecast are tilted to the upside because of Germany."
• Nomura: "We retain our pre-existing view on November euro area inflation, based on the information we have so far: 2.1% for headline and 2.4% for core HICP inflation [...] With the economy likely to grow at close to trend rates, inflation close to target and official interest (depo) rates in the middle of the ECB’s neutral range, we do not expect the ECB to need to adjust its policy settings any time soon."
• SEB see headine at 2.2% and core at 2.4%.
• SocGen: "We expect euro area headline inflation to remain at 2.1% yoy, with core inflation also unchanged at 2.4% yoy. However, our unrounded core forecast is
  2.35% yoy, so there is a risk it prints at 2.3% yoy."
• UniCredit: "Headline inflation in the eurozone is likely to have increased by 0.1pp to 2.2% yoy in November. We estimate that core inflation will have recorded a slight acceleration, to 2.5% yoy from 2.4%, largely due to a base effect [...] The acceleration will prove temporary"

A reminder that our own tracker for tomorrow's Eurozone-wide headline HICP print sits at 2.11% on an unrounded basis. Our full preview for the print meanwhile is here. Later today we are due to receive Irish HICP with the Netherlands and Austria both due to release prints on Tuesday ahead of the pan-Eurozone data.

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