EMISSIONS: UK to Assess Refined Products Inclusion in CBAM in Autumn Budget

• EUR/USD: $1.1700(E1.3bln), $1.1750(E1.5bln), $1.1800(E1.6bln), $1.1850(E624mln)
• USD/JPY: Y154.75($594mln)
• AUD/USD: $0.6590(A$680mln), $0.6650-60(A$875mln)

The chances of an agreement being reached within the EU on the use of frozen Russian assets held in the Union to fund 'reparations loans' for Ukraine in time for sign-off at the 18 Dec EUCO summit appear to have evaporated. On 15 Dec, Belgium once again rejected Commission overtures regarding legal and financial guarantees. EU ambassadors meet today to further discuss the plans. 

• Politico reports as part of the concessions, "...Belgium could tap into as much as €210 billion if it faces legal claims or retaliation by Russia [...]. It also stated that no money should be given to Ukraine before EU countries provide financial guarantees covering at least 50 percent of the payout. In a further concession, the Commission instructed all EU countries to end their bilateral investment treaties with Russia to ensure Belgium isn’t left alone to deal with retaliation from Moscow."
• The article claims that Belgium continues to view the plans as not being watertight and risking leaving it alone if Russia comes to claim the funds.
• The Commission has raised an alternative plan: joint debt issuance to fund Kyiv from the end of Q126. Italy, Malta, Bulgaria and Czechia are all backing Belgium's call for this option to be examined.
• Germany has advocated more strongly for the frozen asset seizure option, but critics argue this is more to do with opposition to EU debt issuance in Berlin than believing it will be a workable plan. The 18-19 Dec EUCO risks becoming a bitter meeting if no agreement is possible. 

• Block, +28,000 TYH6 110 puts, 11 vs. -15,000 TYG6 111 puts, 9
• +20,000 TYH6 110.5 puts, 15 ref 112-16.5