LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (GMT Times)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 13-Feb | 0700 | Dec | GDP/ Trade/ Construction/ Production/ Services |
| 13-Feb | 0700 | Q4 | GDP First Estimate |
| 18-Feb | 0700 | Dec/Jan | Labour Market Survey |
| 18-Feb | 0930 | BOE's Bailey fireside chat on open financial markets | |
| 19-Feb | 0001 | Jan | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 19-Feb | 0700 | Jan | Consumer inflation report |
| 19-Feb | 0700 | Jan | Producer Prices |
| 20-Feb | 1100 | Feb | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 21-Feb | 0001 | Feb | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 21-Feb | 0700 | Jan | Public Sector Finances |
| 21-Feb | 0700 | Jan | Retail Sales |
| 21-Feb | 0930 | Feb | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 25-Feb | 1100 | Feb | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 03-Mar | 0930 | Feb | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Manufacturing PMI |
| 03-Mar | 0930 | Jan | BOE Lending to Individuals/M4 |
| 04-Mar | 0001 | Feb | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 05-Mar | 0930 | Feb | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Services PMI |
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LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (GMT Times)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 14-Jan | 735 | EU | ECB's Lane speech on Europe, Asia and the Changing Globe |
| 14-Jan | 900 | IT | Industrial Production |
| 15-Jan | 315 | EU | ECB's Lane in fireside chat at GS global macro conference |
| 15-Jan | 745 | FR | HICP (f) |
| 15-Jan | 800 | ES | HICP (f) |
| 15-Jan | 800 | EU | ECB's De Guindos at 15th Spain Investors Day |
| 15-Jan | 1000 | EU | Industrial Production |
| 16-Jan | 700 | DE | HICP (f) |
| 16-Jan | 900 | IT | HICP (f) |
| 16-Jan | 1000 | EU | Trade Balance |
| 16-Jan | 1230 | EU | Account of Dec 2024 ECB Monetary Policy Meeting |
| 17-Jan | 900 | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 17-Jan | 1000 | EU | HICP (f) |
| 17-Jan | 1100 | EU | ECB's Cipollone lecture at Crypto Asset Lab conference |
| 20-Jan | 700 | DE | PPI |
| 20-Jan | 1000 | EU | Construction Production |
| 20-Jan | EU | ECB's Lagarde and Cipollone in Eurogroup meeting |
GBPUSD: Southbound
- RES 4: 1.2613 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 1.2607 High Dec 30
- RES 2: 1.2456/2576 20-day EMA / High Jan 7
- RES 1: 1.2367 High Jan 9
- PRICE: 1.2205@ 06:08 GMT Jan 14
- SUP 1: 1.2100 Low Jan 10
- SUP 2: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.2037 Low Oct 4 ‘23 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.2000 Psychological round number
The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and the pair traded to a fresh trend low on Monday. Last week’s move down confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant bear trend. Sights are on 1.2087 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2367, the Jan 9 high.
BOBL TECHS: (H5) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 118.640 Low Dec 6
- RES 3: 118.520 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 117.584 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 117.090 High Jan 9
- PRICE: 116.560 @ 05:48 GMT Jan 14
- SUP 1: 116.350 Low Jan 13
- SUP 2: 116.320 Low Jul 22 2024 (cont)
- SUP 3: 116.210 Low Jul 12 2024 (cont)
- SUP 4: 115.980 Low Jul 11 ‘24 (cont)
A bear cycle in Bobl futures remains intact and the contract is trading just ahead of its recent low. Price has recently traded through key support at 117.180, the Nov 6 low. The clear break strengthens the current downtrend and sights are on 116.320 next, the Jul 22 2024 low (cont). Key short-term resistance is 117.584, the 20-day EMA. Gains would be considered corrective and allow an oversold condition to unwind.
