LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (All Times in GMT)

• The February MPC meeting will almost certainly see Bank Rate left on hold at 5.25% but there are three significant aspects of the decision that will be closely watched by markets – the vote split, the guidance and the forecasts.
• The Bank continues to reiterate that it is data dependent, and the story in the data has changed since both the November MPR forecasts were made and also since the December MPC meeting.
• On the vote: We still look for 1-2 hawkish dissenters and assign a 40% probability to Dhingra voting for a cut at this meeting.
• We expect the tightening bias to be removed from the Monetary Policy Statement, while “finely balanced” is likely to be erased from the Minutes. But the rest of the guidance is likely to stay intact.
• We have read through and summarised over 20 analyst previews. There is a huge split of opinion on what could happen to both the vote, guidance and the forecasts at this meeting.

• RES 4: 4753.50 1.618 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 4725.50 1.50 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 4700.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4688.00 High Jan 30
• PRICE: 4682.00 @ 06:11 GMT Jan 31
• SUP 1: 4599.00/4549.60 High Jan 2 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4402.00 Low Jan 17 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 4370.00 Low Nov 28
• SUP 4: 4334.00 50.0% retracement of the Oct 27 - Dec 14 bull leg

Eurostoxx 50 futures trend conditions remain firm and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Key resistance at 4634.00, the Dec 14 high, has recently been cleared. The break confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and sights are on the 4700.00 handle next. Initial firm support lies at 4549.60, the 20-day EMA. Key trend support has been defined at 4402.00, the Jan 17 low.