LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (All Times in GMT)

Mar-01 06:36
Date UK Period Event
1-Mar 0930 Feb S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final)
1-Mar 1400 BOE's Pill Speech at Cardiff University
5-Mar 0001 Feb BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor
6-Mar 0930 Feb S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI
6-Mar 1230 Budget Statement
7-Mar 0930 Feb BOE's Monthly Decision Maker Panel Data
12-Mar 0700 Jan/Feb Labour Market Survey
13-Mar 0700 Jan GDP/Trade/Services/Production/Construction
15-Mar 0930 Feb BoE/Ipsos Inflation Next 12 Months
18-Mar 1530 DMO Quarterly Investor/GEMM Consultation Meetings
20-Mar 0001 XpertHR pay deals for whole economy
20-Mar 0700 Feb Consumer inflation report/ Producer Prices
21-Mar 0700 Feb Public Sector Finances
21-Mar 0930 Mar S&P Global/ CIPS UK Flash PMI
21-Mar 1200 Bank Of England Interest Rate

Historical bullets

BOE: MNI BOE Preview - February 2024: The end of the tightening bias?

Jan-31 06:30
  • The February MPC meeting will almost certainly see Bank Rate left on hold at 5.25% but there are three significant aspects of the decision that will be closely watched by markets – the vote split, the guidance and the forecasts.
  • The Bank continues to reiterate that it is data dependent, and the story in the data has changed since both the November MPR forecasts were made and also since the December MPC meeting.
  • On the vote: We still look for 1-2 hawkish dissenters and assign a 40% probability to Dhingra voting for a cut at this meeting.
  • We expect the tightening bias to be removed from the Monetary Policy Statement, while “finely balanced” is likely to be erased from the Minutes. But the rest of the guidance is likely to stay intact.
  • We have read through and summarised over 20 analyst previews. There is a huge split of opinion on what could happen to both the vote, guidance and the forecasts at this meeting.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H4) Bullish Conditions Remain Intact

Jan-31 06:28
  • RES 4: 4753.50 1.618 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
  • RES 3: 4725.50 1.50 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
  • RES 2: 4700.00 Round number resistance
  • RES 1: 4688.00 High Jan 30
  • PRICE: 4682.00 @ 06:11 GMT Jan 31
  • SUP 1: 4599.00/4549.60 High Jan 2 / 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 4402.00 Low Jan 17 and key short-term support
  • SUP 3: 4370.00 Low Nov 28
  • SUP 4: 4334.00 50.0% retracement of the Oct 27 - Dec 14 bull leg

Eurostoxx 50 futures trend conditions remain firm and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Key resistance at 4634.00, the Dec 14 high, has recently been cleared. The break confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and sights are on the 4700.00 handle next. Initial firm support lies at 4549.60, the 20-day EMA. Key trend support has been defined at 4402.00, the Jan 17 low.

LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)

Jan-31 06:23
Date UK Period Event
01-Feb 0930 Jan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final)
01-Feb 1200 Bank Of England Interest Rate
01-Feb 1230 BoE Press Conference
01-Feb 1400 Jan DMP Data
02-Feb 1215 BOE's Pill- MPR National Agency briefing
06-Feb 0001 Jan BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor
06-Feb 0930 Jan S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI
07-Feb 0840 BoE's Breeden Speaks At Women In Economics Event
08-Feb 1500 BoE's Mann Speaks At OMFIF
13-Feb 0700 Dec/Jan Labour Market Survey
14-Feb 0700 Jan Consumer inflation report / Producer prices
15-Feb 0700 Dec / Q4 GDP / Services / Production / Trade / Construction
16-Feb 0700 Jan Retail Sales
21-Feb 0001 Jan XpertHR pay deals for whole economy
21-Feb 0700 Jan Public Sector Finances
22-Feb 0930 Feb S&P Global/ CIPS UK Flash PMI