LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (All Times in GMT)

• Treasury futures looking mixed after the bell, the short end weaker after NY Fed President Williams pushed back on the markets dovish response to Wednesday's steady FOMC rate announcement.
• NY Fed Williams posited markets may have reacted to Wed's FOMC announcement "more strongly than forecasts show". Williams' comments on CNBC were actually not too far removed from what Powell said Wednesday.
• Futures held mixed levels after S&P Flash PMIs, long end still bid vs. weaker 2s-10s after lower than expected Manufacturing PMI (48.2 vs. 49.5 est, 49.4 prior) while Services and Composites come out stronger than expected: 51.3 vs 50.7 est and 551.0 vs. 50.5 est respectively.
• TYH4 112-15 (-1.5) at the moment, curves flatter (2Y10Y -7.342 at -54.296. Tsy 10Y futures still well within technical levels: resistance at 112-28.5 (1.618 proj of the Oct 19 - Nov 3 - Nov 13 price swing). Initial support well below at 111-09+ (High Dec 7 and a recent breakout level).
• Given the curve flattening, projected rate cuts for early 2024 consolidated vs. Thursday highs: January 2024 cumulative -3bp at 5.302%, March 2024 chance of rate cut -64.9% vs. -81.9% late Thursday w/ cumulative of -19.2bp at 5.14%, May 2024 chances -64.9% after fully pricing in the first full cut yesterday with cumulative -40.7bp at 4.926%, while June'24 slipped to -89% vs. -96.9%, cumulative -62.9bp at 4.703%. Fed terminal at 5.33% in Feb'24.
• Monday Data Calendar: Chicago Fed Goolsbee interview on CNBC at 0830, New York Fed Services Business Activity at 0830, NAHB Housing Market Index at 1000, while the US Tsy will auction $75B 13W, $68B 26W bills at 1130ET.

Betting markets continue to see former President Donald Trump as the favourite to win the 2024 presidential election.

• According to betting and prediction market data aggregated by BettingMarketOdds, Trump has extended his lead over President Biden by around 3% in the past week off the back of continued poor polling for Biden.
• According to FiveThirtyEight, Biden ends the week with an approval rating of 38.1%, close to lows for his presidency.
• Negative polls this week from Morning Consult and YouGov have added to the downward pressure on Biden's approval rating. YouGov again notes that 'inflation and prices' are the primary concern for voters with only 32% of voters reporting approval of Biden's handling of inflation.

Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Winner

Source: ElectionBettingOdds

A new survey from AP/NORC has found that, “sixty-two percent of adults think democracy could be at risk depending on who wins the presidency in November,” noting that “about equal shares feel democracy is already so broken that the election doesn’t matter (19%) and that democracy is strong enough to withstand the outcome (18%).”

• AP: “Partisans on both sides feel that each party’s front-runner poses a risk to the health of the democracy. Eighty-seven percent of Democrats believe that if Trump is elected again in 2024 he will weaken democracy, and 82% of Republicans say the same about Biden. However, Republicans are more likely to believe that if Trump wins reelection in 2024, democracy would be strengthened compared with Democrats’ view of a Biden reelection.”

Figure 1: Majority of Adults Think Democracy Could be at Risk in 2024

Source: AP/NORC