POWER: UK Spot Climbs as Wind Falls and Demand Rises
The UK spot rose amid a slight decrease in wind output and an increase in power demand amid cooler temperatures on the day. Costs are likely to rebound for 5 January as wind will drop to just 8GW, coupled with rising demand from the weekend.
- The UK spot power index on the Epex Spot rose to £78.48/MWh, compared with £63.94/MWh for Friday’s delivery.
- The peak-load spot index settled at £83.61/MWh, compared with £81.00/MWh in the previous session.
- Wind output in the UK is forecast at 19.73GW during base load on Saturday, or a 68% load factor, down from 19.83GW on Friday, according to SpotRenewables
- Wind will then be at 15.57GW on Sunday before dropping to 8.89GW on Monday.
- Mean temperatures are forecast to drop to 1.79C on tomorrow, from 2.86C today and above the seasonal average of 1.61C.
- Furthermore, the latest month-ahead ECMWF weather forecast for the UK has been revised-up for most days and is expected to stay below average.
- UK LNG imports have been nominated at 76.02 mcm/d compared to the five-day flow average of 62.23 mcm/d, while gas demand -including power – is forecast at 264.59 mcm/d, above the five-year average, according to National Grid.
- Power demand in the UK has been revised down between 2-6 January and is forecast at 31.89GW tomorrow from 31.42GW today, Bloomberg data showed.
- Demand will then be at 33.05GW on Sunday before rising to 37.16GW on Monday.
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UK DATA: Services PMI: MPC doves will be encouraged as firms don't pass on costs
There has been an upward revision to the services (and composite) UK PMIs, but the key thing for the MPC in our opinion will be that despite cost increases, services firms feel that they are constrained regarding their ability to pass on price increases so November prices charged were at their lowest increase in "just under five years." The doves will be encouraged by this, and it is another roadblock cleared ahead of the December MPC meeting. Tomorrow we will see DMP data.
Highlights from the press release
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- "Despite a sharp and accelerated pace of input price inflation, the latest survey indicated only a marginal rise in output charges across the service economy. Moreover, the rate of prices charged inflation eased markedly in November to its lowest for just under five years. Anecdotal evidence suggested that rising competition and weak sales pipelines had constrained service providers' ability to pass on higher business costs."
MNI: UK NOV FINAL SERV PMI 51.3 (50.5 FLASH, 52.3 OCT)
- MNI: UK NOV FINAL SERV PMI 51.3 (50.5 FLASH, 52.3 OCT)
- UK NOV FINAL COMP PMI 51.2 (50.5 FLASH, 52.2 OCT)
