EMISSIONS: UK Sep Power Fall On NBP Losses
Aug-28 07:51
UK Sep power fell on the day amid pullback in NBP as the European storage injections gradually building towards pre-winter target levels assisted by cool weather and ongoing muted demand in Asia. Meanwhile, the downward revisions to power demand forecasts also weighed on prices.
- UK Baseload Month 1 Sep 25 down 2.36% at 74.55 GBP/MWh
- UK Spk Base Month 1 Sep 25 up 1.51% at -7.81 GBP/MWh
- UKA DEC 25 down 0.5% at 51.6 EUR/t CO2e
- NBP Gas SEP 25 down 3.36% at 77.73 GBP/MWh
- NBP front-month costs are tracking price movements of the TTF equivalent. TTF front month extends the weekly trend lower although still above the low of €30.3/MWh from Aug. 18. European storage injections gradually build towards pre-winter target levels assisted by cool weather and ongoing muted demand in Asia. Norwegian seasonal outages remain in focus although are expected at lower levels than last year.
- UKAs Dec25 are trending lower, weighed by losses in EUAs, with EUA-UKA correlation tightening to three-week high.
- UK LNG imports have been nominated at 5 mcm/d compared to the five-day flow average of 5.07 mcm/d, while gas demand -including power – is forecast at 115 mcm/d, below the five-year average of 158 mcm/d, according to National Grid.
- Mean temperatures forecast month-ahead in London has been remained stable and at a similar level with average.
- Closer in, average temperatures in London are forecast to remained stable from 16.23C on Thurs to 16.50C on Fri.
- Power demand forecast in the UK has been revised down between 29-31 Aug, with forecasts projecting a high of 27.68GW on 2 Sep, according to Bloomberg.
- UK wind output has been revised up between 1-5 Sep, with forecasts projecting high of 12.47GW on 1 Sep, according to Bloomberg.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
USD: Cable Targets 1.3300
Jul-29 07:48
- Not much change in FX, it's a continued one way direction for the Dollar, at a new intraday high against the JPY, AUD, CAD, MXN, SEK, SGD, ZAR, TWD.
- The Pound is not the worst performer, the SEK is, but Cable is now eyeing a test through 1.3300.
- Few Desks are favouring further downside on Rate play, hold for the Fed vs cuts from the BoE.
- Aside from the 1.3300 figure, there isn't much in terms of support at current levels, and downside momentum through that area would open to 1.3245 Low May 19.
US: Trump Post on North Sea Oil
Jul-29 07:45
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
North Sea Oil is a TREASURE CHEST for the United Kingdom. The taxes are so high, however, that it makes no sense. They have essentially told drillers and oil companies that, “we don’t want you.” Incentivize the drillers, FAST. A VAST FORTUNE TO BE MADE for the UK, and far lower energy costs for the people!
BUNDS: Testing Intraday low, Heavy volumes goes through in ERZ5
Jul-29 07:32
- A new intraday low for Bund, but very little in term of size flow going through, in fact the volumes for this time of the day are way below averages.
- The Bobl supply is heavy and has been helping some of the small downside early flows.
- The most notable size going through is in the ERZ5, sold in 10k, and this expiry already trades 3 times the rest of the White strip.
- No Block trade have printed in ERZ5.
