RENEWABLES: UK Morning Wind Forecast

• RES 4: $56.153 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing   
• RES 3: $55.444 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: $55.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $49.456/54.480 - High Oct 23 / 17 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: $47.917 @ 08:09 GMT Nov 5
• SUP 1: $46.089/45.557 - 50-day EMA / Low Oct 28  
• SUP 2: $41.135 - Low Sep 17
• SUP 3: $40.000 - Round number support 
• SUP 4: $38.087 - Low Aug 27  

Trend signals in Silver are unchanged, they remain bullish and recent weakness is considered corrective. The trend has recently been in overbought territory and the retracement has allowed this to unwind. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at $46.089. It remains intact, however, a break would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Key resistance has been defined at $54.480, the Oct 17 high. Initial resistance is $49.456, Oct 23 high.

• RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance  
• RES 3: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.4136 Bull channel top drawn from the Jul 23 low
• RES 1: 1.4120 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.4109 @ 08:06 GMT Nov 5
• SUP 1: 1.3998 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.3935 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 1.3888 Low Oct 29 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 1.3859 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low

A bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact. This week’s extension highlights a clear reversal of the corrective bear leg between Oct 14 - 29. The pair has breached 1.4080, the Oct 16 high to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant bull cycle. Sights are on 1.4136, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Jul 23 low. First support lies at 1.3998, the 20-day EMA.

• The Riksbank decision is due at 0830GMT/0930CET. The Board is almost certain to remain on hold at 1.75%, while reiterating that the policy rate “is expected to remain at this level for some time to come”.
• MNI’s full preview is here
• Since September, there have been several datapoints suggesting an economic recovery is underway, supported by accommodative monetary policy, an anticipated expansion of fiscal policy and declining trade policy uncertainty.
• However, we don't think these developments are enough to shift the Board from its clearly signalled path, particularly at an interim meeting with no updated MPR and rate path projection (only a concise Monetary Policy Update document will be presented).
• Soft signals from the Riksbank's Business Survey and a lack of improvement in hard labour market data should guard against the Board sending too hawkish a signal in November.
• The October services/composite PMI was released this morning. Although the services print was below the three-analyst strong consensus and last month’s reading (55.4 vs 57.1 cons, 57.9  prior), the composite PMI remains comfortably in expansionary territory (55.3 in October vs 52.7 YTD average). Note that it is still sending a slightly more optimistic signal than the Economic Tendency Indicator.
• Despite these solid aggregate PMI signals, we caveat that the employment indicators in both the manufacturing and services readings fell in October.