RENEWABLES: UK Morning Wind Forecast
See the latest UK renewables forecast for base-load hours for the next seven days. UK wind output is anticipated to peak on 19 October at a 47% load factor before steadily declining over 20-22 October to a 16% load factor.
UK: Wind for 16-23 October
- 16 October: 2.66GW
- 17 October: 1.59GW
- 18 October: 5.86GW
- 19 October: 13.57GW
- 20 October: 11.82GW
- 21 October: 10.11GW
- 22 October: 4.53GW
23 October: 6.79GW
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EGBS: OATs Lag Iberians As Ratings Convergence Continues
Friday’s rating actions help drive moves in EGB spreads early today, with Spanish (S&P upgraded Spain to A+; Outlook Stable) & Portuguese (Fitch upgraded Portugal to A; Outlook Stable) 10s flat vs. Bunds, while French paper is ~1.5bp wider (Fitch downgraded France to A+; Outlook Stable).
- Friday’s moves underscored the idea of rating convergence between France & the Iberians, given the political and fiscal risk evident in the former.
- The 10-Year Spain/France/Portugal fly is on track for a fresh cycle closing low, trading through -23bp.
- We highlighted the likelihood of the moves for both France and Portugal last week.
- Commerzbank suggests that the fallout for OATS is “likely to be limited, given that OATs are already trading markedly cheaper than double-A or single-A rated peers. While some investors may start to reduce single-A OAT exposure, others may use average ratings, adjust the rating thresholds in their EGB benchmarks, or utilise more attractive spread levels. We close our tactical OAT-Bund spread tightening view and turn neutral for the time being”.
Fig. 1: 10-Year Spain/France/Portugal Butterfly (bp)
SILVER TECHS: Continues To Appreciate
- RES 4: $43.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $42.974 - 2.382 proj of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing
- RES 2: $42.606 - 2.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing
- RES 1: $42.464 - HIgh Sep 12
- PRICE: $42.160 @ 08:13 BST Sep 15
- SUP 1: $40.195 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $38.745 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $36.216 - Low Jul 31 and a key support
- SUP 4: $35.285 - Low Jun 24
Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The metal traded higher Friday and this delivered a fresh cycle high. The extension confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current trend conditions. Sights are on $42.606 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is $40.195, the 20-day EMA.
EQUITIES: European Equities are extending gains
- European Equity futures are extending gains, the Estoxx (VGU5) leads, up 0.60%, and is through the September high printed last Week.
- Next immediate resistance comes at 5438.00.
- In terms of sector, the Banks are the second best performer with the SX7E now up 0.62%.
- The initial resistance will be seen a little further out, up to 242.85, the 2009 high.
- SX7E did manage a 237.32 high back in late August.
(Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg finance LP).
