RENEWABLES: UK Morning Wind Forecast

• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6590 High Jul 01
• PRICE: 0.6508 @ 08:03 BST Jul 07 
• SUP 1: 0.6500 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 0.6471/6373 50-day EMA / Low Jun 23 and a reversal trigger     
• SUP 3: 0.6357 Low May 12
• SUP 4: 0.6275 Low Apr 14

The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective - for now. Recent gains maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, the definition of an uptrend. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 0.6603 next, the Nov 11 2024 high. Initial firm support to watch is 0.6471, the 50-day EMA.

• RES 4: 93.76 High Jul 1 and key resistance   
• RES 3: 93.41 High Jul 2      
• RES 2: 93.26 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 -2 sell-off   
• RES 1: 92.79 High Jul 4
• PRICE: 92.38 @ Close Jul 4 
• SUP 1: 92.12/91.63 Low Jul 3 / 2  
• SUP 2: 91.50 61.8% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 91.16 Low Feb 2     
• SUP 4: 90.97 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg       

Gilt futures faced strong selling pressure on Jul 2. The move down has cancelled a recent bullish theme - price breached the 20-day EMA and traded through a key support at 92.23, the Jun 16 low. The break suggests potential for an extension towards 91.50 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Price action is volatile. Initial resistance to watch is 92.79, the Jul 4 high. A resumption of gains would open the 93.41 high instead.

• Gilt calls, 92.33/92.37.

Watch Bund and Tnotes, they are at session lows, but mostly Two way flows.