RENEWABLES: UK Morning Wind Forecast

• RES 4: 94.75 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg (cont)    
• RES 3: 94.50 High Apr 7 and key resistance       
• RES 2: 93.38 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 high-low range 
• RES 1: 92.70 38.2% retracement of the Apr 7 high-low range                        
• PRICE: 92.01 @ 08:12 BST Apr 8
• SUP 1: 91.58 Low Apr 7                                      
• SUP 2: 91.03 Low Mar 28  
• SUP 3: 90.55 Low MAr 27 and key support     
• SUP 4: 9.00 Psychological round number 

A sharp sell-off in the Gilt futures contract Monday highlights a strong reversal of the recent bull cycle between Mar 27 - Apr 7. A continuation down would expose the next key support located at 90.55, the Mar 27 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a full reversal of the Mar 27 - Apr 7 rally. On the upside, a resumption of gains would initially open 92.70 and 93.38, Fibonacci retracement points of Monday’s high-low range.

The front-end of the SONIA strip outperforms Euribor counterparts, whites +1.0 to +6.5 ticks versus yesterday’s settlement levels and reds +4.0 to +5.5 ticks. U5 futures outperform, but remain short of yesterday’s fleeting session high (current 96.205 vs a high of 96.355 yesterday). 

• Front-end outperformance appears in part be due to dovish comments from former BOE officials Bean and Blanchflower. Bean suggested the BOE should deliver a 50bp cut in May, while Blanchflower argued for an aggressive inter-meeting cut (see here).
• BOE-dated OIS price 27bps of easing through the May decision, 3bps more dovish than yesterday’s close. Meanwhile, there are now 77bps of cuts priced through year-end (versus a dovish extreme of over 90bps yesterday morning).
• BOE’s Lombardelli speaks at 1700GMT today. She is considered close to the centre of the MPC, and hence any comments they make that deviate from the “gradual and careful” language would be deemed to be important. And of course any discussion of the impact of tariffs on the UK will be watched closely.

RXK5 130.50/134.00cs sold at 74.5 in 3k.