POWER: UK Group Urges Gov To Decide on Spending in Line With Climate Targets

Jun-09 10:59

The UK’s campaign group Friends of the Earth urges the government that the upcoming spending review’s decisions should be in line with net zero climate targets as it otherwise faces legal action according to The Guardian. 

  • Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will outline the government’s Spending Review on Wednesday, 11 June, delivering a statement in the House of Commons after Prime Minister’s Questions at 12:30BST (07:30ET, 13:30CET).
  • Reeves will detail the spending allocations for individual government departments over the next several years.
  • Energy secretary Ed Miliband has been fighting for the promised £13.2bn investment for home insulations according to the Guardian.
  • Another sticking point may be funds for GB Energy and whether the government will confirm the investment commitments for the Sizewell C nuclear plant.
  • Offshore Energies UK (OEUK) is urging the government to back the Viking VVS and Acorn projects, while providing strong backing for the country’s offshore wind sector, including for the next CfD auctions.
  • “The government has a legal duty to deliver on climate targets – no amount of political manoeuvring can change that. With the planet already warming to a dangerous degree, extreme weather costing lives and livelihoods, and the UK’s current and future prosperity hanging in the balance, Friends of the Earth will, if necessary, go to the high court to ensure the UK delivers on its legal obligations”, Friends of the Earth head of science, policy and research, Mike Childs, said. 

Historical bullets

MACRO OUTLOOK: US PPI/Retail Sales And Powell Follow On Thursday [2/2]

May-09 20:17
  • Core PCE implications will then be watched closely in Thursday’s PPI report, and we expect with additional focus on portfolio management after last month’s huge upward revision to February.
  • Retail sales, whilst only reported in nominal terms, will offer a keenly awaited look at consumer behavior.
  • Real spending moderated to 1.8% annualized in Q1 after 4.0% in Q4 despite likely tariff front-running, with April a good test of how much discretionary spending was pulled forward.
  • Finally, Powell provides “Opening Remarks” at the Second Thomas Laubach Research Conference, although he’s allotted twenty minutes so there is scope for more substantive remarks than you’d usually expect. His message at Wednesday’s FOMC press conference was one firmly of being in no hurry to cut rates amidst huge uncertainty. He also appeared to put more weight on hard data over soft indicators that appear more stagflationary in nature.

MACRO OUTLOOK: US CPI Offers Look At April Tariff Distortions on Tuesday [1/2]

May-09 20:15
  • The week’s US data calendar is highlighted by CPI inflation on Tuesday although PPI inflation and retail sales reports on Thursday are in close second. All three releases are going to be important, offering further hard data for April in the first month under reciprocal tariffs. What’s more, PPI and retail sales are followed by Fed Chair Powell just ten minutes after their release (more on that below).
  • Core CPI inflation is seen accelerating to 0.3% M/M in April, with six unrounded estimates we’ve seen to date averaging 0.27% M/M.
  • A potential for a ‘low’ 0.3% aside, it’s still likely a swift acceleration from a particularly soft 0.06% M/M in March which was in large part down to surprisingly abrupt declines in lodging away from home (-3.5%) and airfare (-5.3%) prices.
  • This lodging weakness carried over to core PCE inflation back in March, at just 0.03% M/M after a particularly strong 0.50% M/M in February in a large wedge with core CPI at 0.23% M/M.
  • Markets currently price a next Fed cut with the September FOMC meeting.

USDCAD TECHS: Pressuring Resistance

May-09 20:00
  • RES 4: 1.4296 High Apr 7
  • RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4 
  • RES 2: 1.4041 50-day EMA 
  • RES 1: 1.3943 High May 9
  • PRICE: 1.3930 @ 16:06 BST May 9
  • SUP 1: 1.3751 Low May 6 
  • SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
  • SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
  • SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24 

USDCAD has recovered from its recent lows. Despite the recovery, the trend condition remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. A fresh cycle low on Tuesday reinforces the bearish theme. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance is seen at 1.4041, the 50-day EMA.