UK DATA: UK GfK Consumer Confidence Falls for the First Time Since Oct-23
Feb-23 00:01
UK GfK Consumer Confidence fell -2 points to -21 in February, slightly weaker than expected (-18 forecast, -19 prior). It remains below the long-run average of -10, although, on a year-on-year basis, this months reading is a +17 point improvement.
- As the chart shows, consumer confidence has been improving since headline inflation started to moderate towards the end of 2022. This relationship has continued through 2023 and into the start of 2024. However, the closer we are to inflation being around "normal" levels, the more we would expect this relationship to breakdown. Furthermore, consumers' disposable income could be impacted by changes in the upcoming Budget.
- In terms of the month-on-month changes, all sub-components were down, except for 'Personal Financial Situation over the next 12 months' which was unchanged from January at 0. Despite this, all five sub-components remain comfortably above levels seen in February 2023.
- The 'Major Purchase Index' sub-component fell the most this month by -5 points to -25, whilst Savings Index (not included in the GfK Index Score) rose +2 points to 29, 10 points above February 2023 levels.
- February’s survey was conducted among a sample of 2003 individuals from February 1st to February 15th, 2024.
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UK DATA: Xpert HR Median Pay remains at 6% for third consecutive month
Jan-24 00:05
- XpertHR median basic pay award in the 3 months to the end of December 2023 remained at +6% for the third consecutive month.
- XpertHR believe “pay awards have peaked from last year, with more than half of 2024 deals expected to be lower than those awarded in 2023.”
- Already some January 2024 pay deals are coming through, and the Xpert HR senior content manager said “almost half of January 2024 pay deals are lower than the same employees received a year ago.”
MNI: UK OCT-DEC MEDIAN PAY AWARDS +6% :XpertHR
Jan-24 00:04
- MNI: UK OCT-DEC MEDIAN PAY AWARDS +6% :XpertHR
US: Polls Close Shortly In New Hampshire Primary
Jan-24 00:02
The first polling centers of the New Hampshire presidential primary are shortly due to close. The last polling stations will close at 20:00 ET 01:00 GMT.
- Polling ahead of the Republican presidential primary has pointed towards a victory for former President Donald Trump. MNI's preview of the primary can be found here: LINK
- Secretary of State David Scanlan (R-NH) told reporters that he expects most votes to be counted on Tuesday night.
- The New York Times notes: "News media outlets are likely to call the race before all ballots are counted, whenever a winner becomes apparent. The Associated Press does not expect to make a call before [20:00 ET 01:00 GMT], when the last polls close. But in 2016, its call in the Republican primaries came right at [20:00 ET 01:00 GMT]."
- Coverage of the results and reaction will be broadcast on CSPAN at 20:00 ET 01:00 GMT.
