EMISSIONS: UK ETS Speculators Raise Bullish Bets
Investment funds increased their net long positions in UK ETS futures on the ICE exchange as of 17 October, while fundamentals remained stable, according to the latest COT data.
- Investment Funds net long positions increased by 561, or 2.72%, to +21,152.
- Investment Firms net short positions increased by 18, or 0.03%, to -62,736.
- Commercial Undertakings net long positions decreased by 716, or -1.91%, to +36,736.
- UKAs Dec25 posted weekly gains of 1.67% as of 17 October, with open interest down 1.71%, amid potential profit-taking by short holders.
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EGB OPTIONS: Bund downside Put Spread
RXZ5 128/126ps, bought for 66 in 3.25k.
GILTS: Little Changed Early Today
Gilt futures trade through Friday’s lows & first support (90.65), before basing at 90.60 and recovering back above 90.70
- Yields 0.5-1.0bp lower, curve bull steepens, consolidating the steepening seen in the second half of last week.
- 10s outperform both Tsys & Bunds at the margin, cross-market cues are providing the early impetus this week.
- Little of note on the local news front over the weekend, after Friday’s PSNB data revealed the latest instance of fiscal deterioration.
- We look at the implications of the BoE’s decision to target a GBP70bln APF reduction over the next year and will be watching ILTR/STR operations closely in coming weeks as supply-led reserve balances move below the top of the Bank's PMRR (preferred minimum range of reserves).
- Comments from BoE chief economist Pill are due this afternoon (13:30 London), followed by comments from Governor Bailey (19:00 London). Expect Pill’s comments to be of greater interest for markets, as he speaks on monetary policy frameworks, while Bailey speaks on supervisory matters.
SILVER TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: $45.128 - 3.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing
- RES 3: $44.533 - 3.000 proj of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing
- RES 2: $44.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $43.773 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $43.548 @ 08:16 BST Sep 22
- SUP 1: $41.052 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $39.402- 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $36.965 - Low Aug 20
- SUP 4: $36.216 - Low Jul 31 and a key support
Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The metal is trading higher as the bull cycle extends. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current conditions. Sights are on the $44.00 handle next. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a climb towards 44.533, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at $41.052, the 20-day EMA.
