EMISSIONS: UK ETS Cut Free Allocation By 2.8%, Equivalent To £41MN Market Value

The German curve has bear steeped ahead of this morning’s 15-year Bund auction, with Schatz yields little changed at 1.91% and 30-year yields up 3bps at 3.17%. The 5s30s curve has moved away from Thursday’s 86.8bp multi-week low, now back at 94bps. 

• Bund futures are biased lower, albeit on light volumes, but a bullish technical theme remains intact. Futures are currently -17 ticks at 130.18, still above the 50-day EMA.
• 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds are up to 0.5bps wider today. The 10-year BTP/OAT spread has taken another leg lower since the end of July, now just below 14bps for the tightest since 2007.
• This morning’s regional data has not been market moving. German factory orders were skewed lower by the volatile large-scale orders category (-1.0% M/M vs 1.1% cons, an upwardly revised -0.8% prior), while Italian industrial production was stronger-than-expected at 0.2% M/M (vs -0.2% cons, -0.8% prior). French private payrolls growth remains tepid, while Eurozone retail sales were in line at 0.3% M/M.

Gilts hold lower with the presence of global supply and an uptick in crude oil weighing.

• Lows of 92.36 seen in futures so far, contract last -31 at 92.44.
• Bears will look to force a break of Monday’s low (92.24) to expose the 20-day EMA (91.86), as they look to quell some of the recent bullish momentum. Initial resistance at yesterday’s high (92.84).
• Yields 0.5-3.0bp higher, curve bear steepens.
• 2s10s back above 70bp after the first close below since early July, while 5s30s remains pinned around 140bp.
• SONIA futures +1.0 to -3.5, strip twist steepens.
• BoE-dated OIS showing ~49bp of easing through year-end, with over 90% odds of a cut priced for tomorrow.
• Click for our full preview of tomorrow’s decision.
• NIESR’s warning on the UK fiscal situation/need for meaningful tax hikes, has garnered most of the interest when it comes to local news developments.
• Our political risk team notes that with Reform UK benefiting from significant public anger at Labour's handling of immigration and crime, breaking its manifesto promises on tax could further damage the gov'ts standing ahead of elections to the Scottish and Welsh parliaments and English local councils in 2026.
• Little of note on the UK macro calendar today, which will leave focus on cross-market matters (Fed leadership, global trade etc.) for much of the day.