POWER: Uk Day Ahead Rebounds on Lower Wind, Nuclear Works
Mar-05 09:41
Day-ahead prices in the UK rebounded from the previous session as wind output is expected to drop by just over 2GW on the day, with planned works at the 640MW Torness 1 nuke beginning today. This offset a drop in power demand and an upward revision of temperatures in London.
- The UK day-ahead spot settled at £81.41/MWh from £80.16/MWh on the previous day.
- Wind output in the UK is forecast to drop to 13.85GW during base load on Thursday from 16.04GW on Wednesday according to SpotRenewables.
- Wind will then drop to 7.64GW, or a 27% load factor on 7 March (Fri)– which could lift costs further.
- Mean temperatures in London are forecast to rise to 8.5C on Thursday from 6.6C on Wednesday and above the seasonal average of around 6C.
- Temperatures are seen climbing to as high as 10.2C on 7 March before being on a general downward trend and flipping below the norm on 11 March.
- Power demand in the UK is forecast to fall to 33.80GW on Thursday from 34.12GW on Wednesday according to Bloomberg. Demand will then drop further on 7 March to be at 32.58GW.
- The 640MW Torness 1 nuclear power plant in the UK has started its planned maintenance today, with the works to last until 6 April, latest Remit data show.
- However, the 320MW curtailment at the 620MW Hartlepool 1 nuke is still expected to end on 11 March
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UK DATA: Manufacturing PMI sees SMEs under perform big businesses
Feb-03 09:40
Looking at the details from the UK manufacturing PMI press release the main colour is surrounding the differential between SMEs and large businesses.
- New orders and employment have been hit much harder at both small and medium-sized businesses than large businesses.
- Outside of that little more new to the flash release with continued concerns surrounding the Budget and employer NICs. And export demand is also waning.
STIR: Euribor Future Scale Off Lows Alongside Bunds
Feb-03 09:36
Euribor futures are scaling off lows alongside Bunds, looking through the upward revision to the Eurozone January manufacturing PMI. Futures are now +3.0 to +7.5 ticks through the blues, with the back of the whites/front of the reds leading.
- Limited changes in ECB-dated OIS relative to this morning, with 88bps of easing priced through year-end.
- OIS more than fully price a 25bp cut in March. ECB’s Simkus does not believe a March cut “should be the last one”, and played down the role of the neutral rate.
- Kazimir provided a slightly more cautious view, still requiring “unyielding confirmation that inflation remains on a downward course despite all the surrounding risks”.
- The Eurozone flash January HICP print is due at 1000GMT/1100CET.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Mar-25 | 2.400 | -26.2 |
| Apr-25 | 2.203 | -45.9 |
| Jun-25 | 2.005 | -65.7 |
| Jul-25 | 1.926 | -73.6 |
| Sep-25 | 1.837 | -82.5 |
| Oct-25 | 1.820 | -84.2 |
| Dec-25 | 1.780 | -88.3 |
| Feb-26 | 1.777 | -88.5 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
MNI: UK FINAL JAN MANUF PMI 48.3 (FLASH: 48.2); DEC 47.0
Feb-03 09:30
- MNI: UK FINAL JAN MANUF PMI 48.3 (FLASH: 48.2); DEC 47.0
