EU FINANCIALS: UBS: Regulatory Headlines

• Treasuries are extending lows at the moment - tracking German Bunds with no obvious headline of Block driver, and unlikely comment from Fed Miran that: "DATA SUGGEST RATES CAN BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THEY ARE" while "KEEPING POLICY THAT RESTRICTIVE RUNS UNNECESSARY RISKS," Bbg.
• Currently, Dec'25 10Y contract trades -15 to 112-10 low, 10Y yield at 4.1532% (+.0681). A continuation lower would open 112-06, the Sep 25 low and the next key support.

The gov't faces a difficult few weeks ahead of the 26 November budget in the wake of Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves' Downing St. speech on 4 November that refused to rule out manifesto-breaking income tax/VAT/National Insurance increases. While there is likely to have been an element of needing to prepare the ground with the public and markets regarding the all-but-confirmed tax hikes (saying "each of us must do our bit for the security of our country and the brightness of its future"), coming three weeks before the budget means the looming spectre of tax increases will retain a dominant position in the news cycle. 

• Comes amid the slow, but sustained decline in support for the centre-left Labour Party in opinion polling (see left chart below). Whereas Labour has trailed the right-wing populist Reform UK for several months, it has generally retained a comfortable advantage over the main opposition centre-right Conservatives. However, with the environmentalist Greens having recorded a spike in support under its new left-wing populist leader, Zack Polanski, largely at the expense of Labour, PM Sir Keir Starmer's party now risks being pushed into third place nationally.
• Should Labour's polling numbers slump even further post-Budget, it will put even greater pressure on Reeves and Starmer, and indeed a significantly negative public or market reaction could make Reeves' position untenable. Data from Smarkets shows bettors assigning a 40.6% implied probability that Starmer leaves office in 2026, with the May local elections viewed as a potential reckoning day for the PM. 

Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling by Party, % and 6-Poll Moving Average (LHS) and Combined Vote Share for Labour and Conservatives in General Elections & Opinion Polling, % (RHS)

Source: More in Common, YouGov, Find Out Now, Opinium, Techne, Lord Ashcroft Polls, Focaldata, JL Partners, Freshwater Strategy, Survation, Ipsos, BMG Research, MNI

USDJPY's intraday recovery is picking up pace, as the pair prints a new daily high through the London close. A break above yesterday's 154.48 would mark a full reversal of the JPY strength tripped by Katayama's warnings on FX movements on Tuesday - and again shows that USDJPY is a key beneficiary in a higher US yields environment.

• 10y yields are now testing 4.15% on the back of today's private sector data (and, in particular, that ISM services print), which calls further into question the odds of another Fed rate cut at the December meeting.
• In addition, despite Katayama's warnings earlier this week, markets seem happy to fade on the back of Mimura's (Japan's latest 'top currency official') comments overnight not signalling any imminent intervention risk.
• Today's price action affirms the view that pullbacks are technically corrective in nature, and a break of 154.39/48 supports a rally toward 154.80, the Feb 12th high