EU FINANCIALS: UBS Group: 3Q25 Results Headlines
Credit positive. Revenue drivers are working with wealth & the IB in particular beating expectations and producing solid results. Expenses falling YoY due to ongoing cost save programme. Provisions look good. Net capital generation boosts CET1 0.4% to 14.8%. Pre-tax income is slightly messy due to litigation, but ex litigation Q3 PBT is up 19% YoY. 2025 funding plan completed, maintaining optionality with pre-funding 2026 programme. $36bn of maturities/calls in 2026, looks lite versus the $124bn of maturities/calls in 2027, including $16bn AT1s.
- Total Revenues $12.8bn vs est. $12.1bn (5.4% QoQ / 3.5% YoY)
- Net Interest Income $2.0bn vs est. $2.1bn (0.8% QoQ / 10.4% YoY)
- Net Fee & Commission Income $7.2bn vs est. $6.7bn (7.4% QoQ / 10.5% YoY)
- Net Trading Income $3.5bn vs est. $3.1bn (2.8% QoQ / -4.9% YoY)
- Operating Expenses $9.8bn vs est. $10.0bn (0.8% QoQ / -4.4% YoY)
- Pre-Tax Income $2.8bn vs est. $2.0bn (29.0% QoQ / 46.6% YoY)
- Segment Revenue
- Global Wealth Management $6.5bn vs est. $6.4bn (3.9% QoQ / 5.5% YoY)
- Investment Bank $3.2bn vs est. $2.7bn (9.4% QoQ / 22.6% YoY)
- Asset Management $843mn vs est. $796mn (9.2% QoQ / -3.4% YoY)
- Personal & Corporate Banking $2,321mn vs est. $2,308mn (-0.6% QoQ / -3.0% YoY)
- CET1 Ratio 14.8% vs est. 14.6%
- OpInc/RWA (bps) 56 vs est. 40
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EQUITIES: EU Bank Large Block trade
EU Bank large Block trade, suggest seller:
- CAZ5 ~7.8k at 233.10.
RIKSBANK: September Minutes Due At 0830BST/0930CET; Seim In Focus
Riksbank September meeting minutes are due at 0830BST/0930CET. A reminder that the Board voted to cut the policy rate to 1.75% last Tuesday, with Deputy Governor Seim dissenting in favour of a hold. The guidance was fairly clear that this was likely to be the last rate cut of the cycle.
- We’ll first be looking at Seim’s dissenting comments. The September policy statement said that Seim “advocated an unchanged policy rate….together with a policy rate path signalling some probability of a further cut later this year….She argued that a vulnerable supply side, combined with an expansionary fiscal policy in 2026, implies that inflation could surprise on the upside”
- We already considered Seim to be the most hawkish member of the Board before the September decision, so her dissent wasn’t a massive surprise.
- We won’t pay any attention to First Deputy Governor Breman’s remarks following her announcement as the new RBNZ Governor. Breman formally leaves the Riksbank next week.
- Recruitment for a new Deputy Governor has begun. Aino Bunge has been promoted to First Deputy Governor.
- With the Board currently comprised of only four members, Governor Thedeen has the deciding vote in the event of a tie at upcoming meetings (though these are very likely to be uncontroversial given the September guidance).
SONIA OPTIONS: Call Spread vs Put Spread
SFIZ6 96.60/90.75cs vs 96.25/96.15ps, bought the cs for half in 2k (ref 96.38).
