US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Support Intact For Now
- RES 4: 112-23 High May 1 and key resistance
- RES 3: 112-15 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 sell-off
- RES 2: 112-12+ High Jul 1 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 111-13+/111-28 High Jul 10 / High Jul 3
- PRICE: 110-25+ @ 17:03 BST Jul 11
- SUP 1: 110-21+/17 Low Jul 8 / 61.8% of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
- SUP 2: 110-10+ Low Jun 16
- SUP 3: 110-03 76.4% of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
- SUP 4: 109-28 Low Jun 6 and 11
Treasury futures maintain a softer short-term tone following the retracement that started Jul 1. Price has breached the 50-day EMA, at 110-31+. This undermines a recent bull theme and exposes 110-17 next, a Fibonacci retracement point and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. Note that it also remains possible that the recent move down is a correction. Resistance to watch is at 111-28, the Jul 3 high.
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Bearish Threat Still Present
- RES 4: 111-30 76.4% retracement of the May 1 - 22 downleg
- RES 3: 111-19+ 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 111-14+ High Jun 5 & 61.8% of the May 1 - 22 downleg
- RES 1: 110-19+/20+ 50-day EMA / Jun 11 High
- PRICE: 110-15 @ 16:44 BST Jun 11
- SUP 1: 109-26 Low May 29
- SUP 2: 109-12+ Low May 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 109-09+ Low Apr 11 and key support
- SUP 4: 108-25+ 0.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 11 - May 1 price swing
The recent reversal in Treasury futures was partially erased Wednesday on the back of the soft US CPI print, keeping markets cognizant of the underlying bullish theme for Treasury prices. Key short-term resistance remains 111-14+, a Fibonacci retracement and the Jun 5 high. Clearance of this hurdle would be bullish. First resistance at the 110-19+ 50-day EMA has been pierced. Any extension lower would expose support at 109-26, the May 29 low, where a break would open key support and the bear trigger, at 109-12+, the May 22 low.
