US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Support Intact For Now
Jul-11 10:22
- RES 4: 112-23 High May 1 and key resistance
- RES 3: 112-15 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 sell-off
- RES 2: 112-12+ High Jul 1 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 111-13+/111-28 High Jul 10 / High Jul 3
- PRICE: 111-30+ @ 11:11 BST Jul 11
- SUP 1: 110-21+/17 Low Jul 8 / 61.8% of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
- SUP 2: 110-10+ Low Jun 16
- SUP 3: 110-03 76.4% of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
- SUP 4: 109-28 Low Jun 6 and 11
Treasury futures maintain a softer short-term tone following the retracement that started Jul 1. Price has breached the 50-day EMA, at 110-31+. This undermines a recent bull theme and exposes 110-17 next, a Fibonacci retracement point and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. Note that it also remains possible that the recent move down is a correction. Resistance to watch is at 111-28, the Jul 3 high.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Trend Needle Points North
Jun-11 10:21
- In the equity space, the trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract has again traded to a fresh cycle high, today. The recent break of 5993.50, the May 20 high and a bull trigger, highlights a resumption of the uptrend and maintains a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6057.00 next, the Mar 3 high. Key support to watch lies at 5808.04, the 50-day EMA.
- EUROSTOXX 50 futures continue to trade at their recent highs. The trend condition is bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. Sights are on 5516.00, the Mar 3 high and the key bull trigger. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bull theme. Key support to watch lies at 5291.25, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal a possible reversal.
METALS: Immediate resistance in Platinum Holds
Jun-11 10:18
- The Resistance noted in Platinum in early trade at $1279.35 held well, printed a $1275.45 high.
- Platinum has spiked 9.71% since Monday on expectations of another Annual deficit, Market Tightness, and is also up a whopping 22.85% from the June low.
GBP: Cable Consolidates at 1.3500, JPM on Potential Bullish Trend Exhaustion
Jun-11 10:15
- GBPUSD remains unchanged on Wednesday, broadly consolidating a dip following yesterday’s softer-than-expected labour market data and holding steady around 1.35. Yesterday’s price action prompted cable to reach initial support at its 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would suggest potential for a deeper correction and expose the 50-day EMA for direction, at 1.3306.
- Separately, EURGBP has moderately extended yesterday’s rally, bolstered by the breach of key short-term resistance around 0.8440. Price developments highlight a stronger reversal, potentially exposing 0.8541, the May 02 high.
- Interestingly, JP Morgan recently noted that GBPUSD continues to bullishly pressure the confluence of longer-term trend line and channel resistance between 1.3557-1.36, but the lows of rally momentum in that area has also triggered bearish momentum divergence signals.
- They also highlighted a potential ending diagonal pattern suggesting bullish trend exhaustion. In their view, a break below the 1.3416 would confirm a short-term bearish trend reversal and target a deeper pullback towards 1.3140-1.3280 support zone. That area that includes the 50-day MA, Jan-Apr trend line, chart pivots, and Apr Fibonacci retracement levels is critical to the health of the broader rally structure.
