SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 107.245 High Jul 24
- RES 3: 107.185 High Aug 1
- RES 2: 107.148 50-day EMA and a key area of resistance
- RES 1: 107.125 High Aug 27
- PRICE: 107.060 @ 05:42 BST Aug 29
- SUP 1: 107.035/106.970 Low Aug 26 / 25 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 107.964 1.618 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
- SUP 3: 106.928 1.764 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
- SUP 4: 106.870 2.000 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
The trend outlook in Schatz futures remains bearish, however, the contract has traded higher this week. Resistance to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at 107.148. A clear break of this EMA would undermine a bear theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. This would open 107.185, the Aug 1 high. On the downside, the bear trigger has been defined at 106.970, the Aug 25 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.
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SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Trading Above Last Week’s Low
- RES 4: 107.360 High Jul 22 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 107.267 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 107.233 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 107.155 Low Jul 28
- PRICE: 107.100 @ 05:58 BST Jul 30
- SUP 1: 107.010 Low Jul 25 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 107.993 1.500 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
- SUP 3: 106.964 1.618 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
- SUP 4: 106.928 1.764 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
Schatz futures traded sharply lower last week resulting in a break of key short-term support at 107.120, the Jul 11 low and a bear trigger. However, the contract has recovered from the Jul 25 low and recent price patterns highlight a potential base. A continuation higher would expose resistance at the 20-day EMA, at 107.221. The 50-day EMA is at 107.267. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 107.010, the Jul 25 low.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 01-Aug | 0930 | Jul | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 04-Aug | - | Aug | Bank of England Meeting |
| 05-Aug | 0930 | Jul | S&P Global Services PMI (Final) |
| 05-Aug | 0930 | Jul | S&P Global/CIPS Final Composite PMI |
| 06-Aug | 0930 | Jul | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 07-Aug | 1200 | --- | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
| 07-Aug | 1230 | --- | BOE Press Conference |
| 07-Aug | 1400 | Jul | BOE Decision Maker Panel Data |
| 08-Aug | 1215 | --- | BOE Pill At National MPC Agency Briefing |
| 12-Aug | 0001 | Jul | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 12-Aug | 0700 | Jul | Labour Market Survey |
| 14-Aug | 0700 | Q2 / Jun | GDP / Services / Production / Trade / Construction |
| 18-Aug | 1530 | --- | DMO likely to publish FQ3 consultation agenda |
| 20-Aug | 0001 | Jul | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 20-Aug | 0700 | Jul | Consumer inflation report / Producer Prices |
STIR: RBA Dated OIS Softer After Q2 UCPI Miss
RBA-dated OIS pricing is 3-6bps softer across meetings after today’s Q2 CPI data.
- Australia's Q2 trimmed mean CPI printed only 0.1pp above the RBA's May Q2 forecast, which with the economy developing broadly in line with expectations since the July meeting should allow it to ease 25bp on August 12 when it also releases its updated outlook. Trimmed mean rose 0.6% q/q to be up 2.7% y/y, a moderation from Q1's 0.7% & 2.9%.
- A 25bp rate cut in August is given a 99% probability, with a cumulative 64bps of easing priced by year-end (based on an effective cash rate of 3.84%).
Figure 1: RBA-Dated OIS – Current Vs. Pre-CPI
Source: Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI
