US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Resistance Is Intact For Now

• Chinese policy advisors and FX advisors give their outlook for the yuan. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com

• RES 4: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
• RES 2: 1.1440/1573 High Apr 23 / 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1293/1381 High May 9 / High May 2 - 6  
• PRICE: 1.1280 @ 11:05 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 1.1096/65 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 12 
• SUP 2: 1.1026 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle 
• SUP 3: 1.0943 Low Apr 10    
• SUP 4: 1.0857 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle

EURUSD has started the week on a bullish note. The pair remains above last week’s low and recent weakness appears corrective. A key support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.1096, is intact. A clean break of this average would undermine the uptrend. Key trend signals continue to highlight an uptrend and, a key resistance to watch is 1.1381, the May 2 - 6 high. Clearance of this level would signal the end of the correction and highlight a bullish break.

Today sees multiple Fed speakers on the calendar, including Bostic, Jefferson and Logan at an Atlanta Fed conference on financial intermediation. We put most focus on ’26 voters Logan and then Kashkari today for their first appearances since the May 6-7 FOMC meeting. Logan’s last comments only just came after the partial tariff pause back on Apr 9 and of course both will have preceded the de-escalation in US-China trade policy on May 12. 

• 0830ET – Bostic (non-voter) opening remarks at conference on financial intermediation. He told a Bloomberg Odd Lots podcast interview on May 14, published May 16, that he still sees just one rate cut this year amid uncertainty. The recent de-escalation in US-China trade tensions has only changed his outlook "a little".
• 0845ET – Vice Chair Jefferson (voter) gives keynote remarks before moderated discussion with Bostic (text + Q&A). He said May 14 that he sees Fed policy well positioned to respond in a timely way amidst higher risks to both sides of the mandate. He’s watching for signs of the economy weakening in the hard data.
• 0845ET – NY Fed’s Williams (voter) in moderated discussion at MBA event (Q&A only). His May 9 prepared remarks focused on central bank credibility - the bedrock of central banking is anchored inflation expectations - before subsequent Q&A and a BBG TV appearance suggested a similar stance to Powell, especially re there appearing to be no rush to cut rates.
• 1315ET – Logan (’26 voter) gives remarks and moderates panel at financial intermediation conference (text). Her last comments of note came on Apr 10 with a characteristically hawkish outlook: "For now, I believe the stance of monetary policy is well positioned"... "To  sustainably achieve both of our dual-mandate goals, it will be important to keep any tariff-related price increases from fostering more persistent inflation." A sustained burst of inflation could lead households and businesses to expect further price increases, especially following the persistently elevated inflation in recent years.
• 1330ET – Kashkari (’26 voter) in moderated discussion at U.Minnesota (Q&A only). He said Apr 22 that tariffs are at least somewhat inflationary and the Fed cannot allow inflation expectations to became unanchored. He’s not seeing evidence of widespread layoffs and noted that federal job cuts aren’t making a big dent in the economy. However, he added Apr 24 that he’s worried that enough uncertainty may cause layoffs and that the frequency of Washington announcements is a challenge.
• 1445ET – Bostic (non-voter) on Bloomberg TV