US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Resistance Intact
- RES 4: 111-30 76.4% retracement of the May 1 - 22 downleg
- RES 3: 111-21 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 111-14+ High Jun 5 & 61.8% of the May 1 - 22 downleg
- RES 1: 111-13 High Jun 13
- PRICE: 110-27 @ 16:25 BST Jun 20
- SUP 1: 110-10+/109-28 Low Jun 16 / Low Jun 6 / 11
- SUP 2: 109-12+ Low May 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 109-09+ Low Apr 11 and key support
- SUP 4: 108-25+ 0.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 11 - May 1 price swing
Key resistance in Treasury futures at 111-14+, a Fibonacci retracement and the Jun 5 high, remains intact for now. A clear break of this hurdle is required to highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 111-30, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at 109-28, the Jun 6 / 11 low. Clearance of this level would be bearish and open the bear trigger at 109-12+, the May 22 low.
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US: Trump To Meet With Conservatives At 15:00ET To Urge Support For Megabill
Jake Sherman at Punchbowl News reporting that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and members of the conservative House Freedom Caucus will meet with President Donald Trump at the White House at 15:00 ET 20:00 BST. Sherman notes that Trump, "is expected to tell the HFC that the bill needs to pass today," referring to the 'Big Beautiful' reconciliation bill.
- As noted in previous bullet, the move is consistent with a strategy utilised by Johnson and Trump throughout this Congress to personally whip individual conservative House Representatives on key House votes. See: US: Speaker Johnson Says There Is "Chance" Of A Vote On Megabill Today
- Johnson and Trump are likely to impress on conservatives that passing the House reconciliation bill today is crucial to minimise the risk of attendance problems caused by the upcoming Congressional recess.
- Trump is likely to use his authority to informally endorse more deficit reduction measures in future revisions to the bill, as the package next heads to the Senate, where it is likely to be rewritten and returned to the House.
- The White House meeting keeps open the possibility that Johnson could schedule a vote in the House today. If a vote doesn't come this evening, Johnson has promised to keep the chamber in session indefinitely until the bill is passed.
- Note: The House Rules Committee is still in session and debating amendments to the bill. The panel is yet to unveil any updated measures.
SONIA: More Large Option Flow
SFIZ5 96.30/96.55/96.80 call fly, bought for 3.75 in 18k
FED: US TSY 17W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $621 MLN FROM $60.000 BLN TOTAL
- US TSY 17W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $621 MLN FROM $60.000 BLN TOTAL
