US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Maintains A Softer Tone
- RES 4: 112-15 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 sell-off
- RES 3: 112-12+ High Jul 1 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 111-13+/111-28 High Jul 10 / High Jul 3
- RES 1: 111-00 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 110-20 @ 16:57 BST Jul 17
- SUP 1: 110-08+ Low Jul 14 & 16
- SUP 2: 110-03 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
- SUP 3: 109-28 Low Jun 6 and 11
- SUP 4: 109.25 Low May 27
Treasury futures maintain a softer tone and the contract is trading closer to recent lows. An important support at 110-17, 61.8% of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg, has been breached. Note that price has also traded through a trendline support at 110-24+. The line is drawn from the May 22 low. A continuation would open 110-03, the 76.4% retracement. Initial resistance is at 111-00, the 20-day EMA.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
SECURITY: Analysts View Vance Tweet As Possible Precursor To US Strike On Iran
Several military analysts and reporters have interpreted Vice President JD Vance's recent social media post as laying the groundwork for US President Donald Trump to authorise the use of 'bunker buster' bombs to strike Iran's Fordow nuclear facility. The prevailing view is that Trump is unlikely to have yet made a final decision.
- Bojan Pancevski at the Wall Street Journal writes: "The VP seems to be saying "buckle up.""
- Alanya Treen at CNN notes: "This is the most significant language we have heard from any top official on the escalating conflict.""
- Shashank Joshi at The Economist highlights a recent comment from German Chancellor Friedrich Merz: “This is the dirty work that Israel is doing for all of us." Joshi notes Merz, "is not the only official in Europe who feels this way; he’s the only one saying it out loud", suggesting there is unlikely to be significant pushback from Western leaders if Israel escalates operations against Iran's nuclear facilities.
- However, UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said a short time ago he is confident that Trump will not authorise an attack Iran: "There's nothing the president said [at the G7] that suggests he's about to get involved in this conflict."
- Barack Ravid at Axios reports that Trump is scheduled to meet with his national security advisors in the White House Situation Room today. It is unclear if the meeting has taken place yet.
US: Latest from President Trump on Iran via Truth Social
- @realDonaldTrump
- "We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran. Iran had good sky trackers and other defensive equipment, and plenty of it, but it doesn’t compare to American made, conceived, and manufactured “stuff.” Nobody does it better than the good ol’ USA."
US OUTLOOK/OPINION: GDPNow Pulls Back After Retail Sales
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for Q2 GDP growth fell to 3.5% Q/Q SAAR compared with 3.8% at its last formal update on June 9.
- PCE has notably been marked lower to 1.9% from 2.5% prior (following weak retail sales data today), with residential investment also notably weaker.
- Growth estimates in table below.
