US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Key S/T Resistance Remains Exposed

Jun-13 16:03
  • RES 4: 111-30   76.4% retracement of the May 1 - 22 downleg
  • RES 3: 111-20   1.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 2: 111-14+ High Jun 5 & 61.8% of the May 1 - 22 downleg
  • RES 1: 111-13   Intraday high 
  • PRICE:‌‌ 110-18 @ 16:55 BST Jun 13
  • SUP 1: 110-17+/109-28 20-day EMA / Low Jun 6 / 11         
  • SUP 2: 109-12+ Low May 22 and the bear trigger 
  • SUP 3: 109-09+ Low Apr 11 and key support
  • SUP 4: 108-25+ 0.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 11 - May 1 price swing

Treasury futures have traded to a fresh short-term high Friday, as the contract extends the recovery from the Jun 11 low. Attention is on key short-term resistance at 111-14+, a Fibonacci retracement and the Jun 5 high. Clearance of this hurdle would be bullish. On the downside, a reversal lower would refocus sights on 109-28, the Jun 6 / 11 low. A break of this level would be bearish and open the bear trigger, at 109-12+, May 22 low.

Historical bullets

US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Jun'25 2Y & 5Y Buys

May-14 16:01
  • +7,500 TUM5 103-07.88, buy through 103-07.62 post time offer at 1152:50ET followed by
  • +6,500 FVM5 107-12.25, post time offer at 1152:50ET, trades 107-12.5 last

US STOCKS: Midday Equities Roundup: Bouncing on Middle East Trade Headlines

May-14 15:55
  • Stocks have bounced off recent Wednesday session lows after Pres Trump "signed an agreement with Qatar to generate an economic exchange worth at least $1.2 trillion," according to a fact sheet issued by the White House.
  • Currently, the DJIA trades up 2.3 points (0.01%) at 42143.74, S&P E-Minis up 9.5 points (0.16%) at 5914.25, the Nasdaq up 119.1 points (0.6%) at 19130.52.
  • Information Technology and Communication Services sectors outperformed for the second consecutive session, chip makers leading the former after the Trump admin lifts curbs and touted deals with Saudi Arabia yesterday.
  • Leading gainers included: Super Micro Computer +17.10%, Advanced Micro Devices +4.73%, NVIDIA +3.27%, Enphase Energy +3.00% and Dell Technologies +2.83%.
  • Interactive media and entertainment shares supported the Communication Services sector: Alphabet +2.98%, Take-Two Interactive Software +1.22%, Match Group +1.11% and Netflix +1.01%.
  • On the flipside, Health Care and Utilities underperformed in the first half, pharmaceuticals weighing on the former: Bio-Techne -4.81%, Solventum -4.54%, Revvity -4.44%, Moderna -4.24% and AbbVie -3.76%.
  • Shares weighing on the Utility sector included: Eversource Energy -2.88%, Exelon -2.35%, WEC Energy Group -2.31%, Consolidated Edison -2.10% and Constellation Energy -2.04%.

MACRO ANALYSIS: US Investment Pledges Under Trump In Context [2/2]

May-14 15:44
  • For context, the flow of total investment in the US summed to $4.0trn in 2024 (from standard national accounts), of which $0.9trn was in structures, $1.5trn in equipment and $1.6tn in IP.
  • That total was worth 13.8% GDP in 2024, close to the high end for previous cycles having rarely exceeded and last higher with the Dotcom bubble, peaking at 15% GDP in 2000.  
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