US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Holds Ground
Aug-08 12:45
- RES 4: 113-23 76.4% retracement of the Sep’24 - Jan’25 sell-off
- RES 3: 113-07 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 sell-off
- RES 2: 112-23 High May 1
- RES 1: 112-15+ High Aug 5
- PRICE: 112-00+ @ 13:40 BST Aug 8
- SUP 1: 110-19+/08+ Low Jul 24 / Low Jul 14 & 16
- SUP 2: 110-03 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
- SUP 3: 109-28 Low Jun 6 and 11
- SUP 4: 109.25 Low May 27
Treasury futures remain strong on the back of the post-NFP rally - barring an erratic and quickly reversed intraday slip on Wednesday. Having cleared resistance into the bull trigger at 112-12+, the Jul 1 high, Treasuries have opened the May 1 high for direction at 112-23, a multi-month high. Clearance here opens retracement levels layered between 113-07 and 113-23. On the downside, key support is 110-08+, the Jul 14 and 16 low. First support lies at 110-19+, the Jul 24 low.
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FED FUNDS FUTURES: Outsized Buyer Aug'25 FF
Jul-09 12:43
- +100,000 FFQ5 at 95.685 (+0.00), the Aug'25 serial contract goes bid there.
- Total volume 137,965, more than twice the first 5 contract volume combined.
US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump Punts Tariffs And Pivots On Ukraine
Jul-09 12:23
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Executive summary:
- President Donald Trump will hold a White House lunch today with the leaders of Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania, and Senegal to discuss “commercial opportunities”.
- Markets have largely shrugged off Trump’s latest tariff ultimatum, likely assessing that major trade partners will strike preliminary agreements before the new August 1 deadline or receive another extension.
- Markets have been less sanguine about the prospect of a punitive new tariff on copper imports, designed to reshore copper production in the United States.
- South Korea is eyeing an in-person meeting between Trump and President Lee Jae-myung. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said Tokyo and Washington will "swiftly proceed with negotiations towards the newly set August 1 deadline".
- Trump told reporters yesterday he would "probably" tell the European Union within two days what tariff rate it can expect.
- Trump's economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, has emerged as the slight favourite to be nominated as the next Fed chair.
- Senate leaders are expected to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this afternoon as negotiators in Qatar struggle to make a breakthrough on a Gaza ceasefire.
- Trump is leaning closer to endorsing a new Russia sanctions package. The primary concern for the White House is how to calibrate secondary sanctions without dramatically increasing tensions with China and India.
- Poll of the Day: Very few Americans support reducing or eliminating funding for social services.
Please find the full article attached below: US DAILY BRIEF
FOREX: Westpac Recommend Short GBP/AUD On Move Higher
Jul-09 12:22
Westpac recommend entering GBP/AUD shorts on a move to 2.0920, with a stop loss at 2.1050 and target of 2.0500.
- They note that “GBP/AUD has been repeatedly cresting into well-defined resistance in recent weeks. The RBA, against expectations, kept rates on hold in July and markets have since shifted to a full cut for August, though crucially it depends on Q2 CPI (30 July) not surprising too much on the upside.”
- Meanwhile, “UK PM Starmer suffered a damaging rebellion over proposed welfare reforms, damaging his authority, and raising the potential for a renewal of the “political risk” premium in GBP/Gilts”.
