US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Cracks Resistance

• RES 4: 149.28 High Apr 3  
• RES 3: 148.65 High May 12 and a reversal trigger
• RES 2: 146.19/148.03 High Jun 24 / 23
• RES 1: 144.97 50-day EMA  
• PRICE: 143.87 @ 16:22 BST Jul 2
• SUP 1: 142.68 Low Jul 1   
• SUP 2: 142.12 Low May 27 and a key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 upleg
• SUP 4: 141.49 Low Apr 23    

A bear threat in USDJPY remains intact and Tuesday’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The Jun 23 shooting star candle formation highlighted a reversal of the recent recovery and this signal remains in play. Note too that price has traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of the EMAs strengthens a bearish threat and opens 142.12, the May 27 low and a key short-term support. Initial resistance is at 144.97, the 50-day EMA.  

A new survey from Gallup has found that, “Most investors foresee volatility persisting through 2025 and believe the worst is still to come, rather than “behind us.” Despite this, investor confidence in the stock market as a means of building retirement wealth remains high.”

• Gallup notes: “Democratic investors (48%) are far more likely than Republican investors (9%) to say they are very concerned about recent stock market volatility and are twice as likely to be very or somewhat concerned overall (82% vs. 41%). Concern among independents falls between the two partisan groups, similar to the national average.”

Figure 1: "In terms of market volatility this year, do you think the worst is behind us or the worst is ahead of us?"

Source: Gallup

• Within industries of nonfarm payrolls, expect a continued focus on those more cyclically sensitive sectors, such as food & drinking places, for discretionary spending indicators.
• This category saw notable strength in May at +30k after +23k in April (average +11k in 2024) but maybe scope for a downward revision.
• Friday saw real consumer spending disappoint in May at -0.3% M/M (cons 0.0) with particular weakness admittedly in goods (-0.8%) but services also languished with -0.03% M/M for technically a third monthly contraction in the five months of the year to date.
• There could also be a calendar effect at play, with BofA warning that the earlier Memorial Day could weigh on leisure & hospitality more broadly.
• Transportation & warehousing should also be watched for a look at more direct impacts from US tariff policy. Recall that this category saw large downward revisions last month, leaving payrolls growth of +6k in May after -8k in April (initially +29k) and -21k in March (+3k) and changing a narrative around implications of inventory accumulation on warehousing roles in particular.
• The latest vintage points to a recent net negative impact from tariffs now having peaked with 28k and 34k monthly increases back in Nov and Dec.
• Education & health services will also be watched closely after today's ADP employment report showed a yet further widening in what has been a puzzling disconnect with BLS payrolls.