COPPER TECHS: (U5) Bullish Structure
Jul-04 13:16
- RES 4: $560.00 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $546.15 - High Mar 26 and a key resistance
- RES 2: $524.30 - High Mar 28
- RES 1: $521.20 - High Jul 3
- PRICE: $506.15 @ 14:05 BST Jul 4
- SUP 1: $476.40 - Low Jun 13 and a key short-term support
- SUP 2: $453.05 - Low May 9
- SUP 3: $440.90/411.75 - Low Apr 10 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: $400.00 - Psychological round number
Copper futures remain in a bull cycle and recent gains strengthen a bullish condition. Gains on Jun 26 delivered a print above $511.00, the Jun 5 high. Price has also pierced $514.43, the 76.4% retracement of the Mar 26 - Apr 7 bear leg. A clear break of both price points would pave the way for a climb towards $546.15, the Mar 26 high and a key resistance. Support to watch lies at $476.40, the Jun 13 low.
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BOC: Instant Answers For BOC Rate Decision
Jun-04 13:12
Reminder - we have chosen the following questions for our Instant Answers service with the BoC decision at 0945ET:
- Overnight Rate Target (%)
- Does the Bank signal it's prepared to LOWER rates in the future?
- Does the Bank signal it's prepared to RAISE rates in the future?
- Does the Bank signal it intends to leave rates on hold?
- Does the Bank mention core inflation has been elevated or above the 2% target for headline CPI?
- Does the Bank say the trade war is boosting inflation or inflation expectations?
- Does the Bank say the risks to growth from the trade war appear to have eased?
BOC: June Decision: Hold Is 80+% Priced
Jun-04 13:10
The Bank of Canada decision is in just over 30 minutes (0945ET) - our full preview is here (PDF link) :
- The BOC is likely to keep the overnight rate at 2.75%. Current OIS meeting-dated pricing implies between 15-20% probability of a 25bp cut today, though there are multiple analysts who have a cut as their base case - and the BOC has been known to surprise in the past.
- The next meeting in July is still very much "live" both with analysts and market pricing, with 17bp cumulative cuts priced through then, though the first full cut pricing is only through September's decision. 40bp of cuts are priced for the remainder of 2025.
- Statement / Press Conference: Consensus appears to be for a "dovish hold", keeping the door open to a cut in July. The BoC will emphasize once again that it is committed to maintaining price stability amid high levels of uncertainty. We wouldn’t expect any sort of firmer forward guidance.
- Monetary Policy Report / Projections: There is no MPR at this meeting – the next release is in July.
EQUITIES: EU Bank Vol trade
Jun-04 13:09
SX7E (19th Dec) 200^, bought for 18.10 in 7k.
