COPPER TECHS: (U5) Bullish Structure

Reminder - we have chosen the following questions for our Instant Answers service with the BoC decision at 0945ET: 

• Overnight Rate Target (%)
• Does the Bank signal it's prepared to LOWER rates in the future?
• Does the Bank signal it's prepared to RAISE rates in the future?
• Does the Bank signal it intends to leave rates on hold?
• Does the Bank mention core inflation has been elevated or above the 2% target for headline CPI?
• Does the Bank say the trade war is boosting inflation or inflation expectations?
• Does the Bank say the risks to growth from the trade war appear to have eased?

The Bank of Canada decision is in just over 30 minutes (0945ET) - our full preview is here (PDF link) : 

• The BOC is likely to keep the overnight rate at 2.75%. Current OIS meeting-dated pricing implies between 15-20% probability of a 25bp cut today, though there are multiple analysts who have a cut as their base case - and the BOC has been known to surprise in the past.
• The next meeting in July is still very much "live" both with analysts and market pricing, with 17bp cumulative cuts priced through then, though the first full cut pricing is only through September's decision. 40bp of cuts are priced for the remainder of 2025.
• Statement / Press Conference: Consensus appears to be for a "dovish hold", keeping the door open to a cut in July.  The BoC will emphasize once again that it is committed to maintaining price stability amid high levels of uncertainty. We wouldn’t expect any sort of firmer forward guidance.
• Monetary Policy Report / Projections: There is no MPR at this meeting – the next release is in July.

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