US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Bullish Outlook
Aug-21 10:36
- RES 4: 113-23 76.4% retracement of the Sep’24 - Jan’25 sell-off
- RES 3: 113-07 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 sell-off
- RES 2: 112-23 High May 1
- RES 1: 112-15+ High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 111-23+ @ 11:25 BST Aug 21
- SUP 1: 111-12 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 110-23+/08+ Low Aug 1 / Low Jul 15 & 16
- SUP 3: 110-03 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
- SUP 4: 109-28 Low Jun 6 and 11
A bullish theme in Treasury futures remains intact and the contract continues to trade above support at the 50-day EMA, at 111-12. A clear break of this average would expose support at 110-23+, the Aug 1 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 112-15+, the Aug 5 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 112-23 initially, the May 1 high.
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EQUITIES: European Stocks Hit New Lows into NY Hours on Tech Underperformance
Jul-22 10:35
- European equity markets head into the NY crossover at the day's lowest levels - pressuring the DAX future to trade with losses of 1%. US futures are steadier given the late sell-off after the European close yesterday, but tech names are clearly underperforming: The NASDAQ-100 future is off 0.25% while the Dow Jones is flat.
- NVIDIA shares are off 0.8% pre-market and the European semiconductors subsector is the poorest performer on the continent. Infineon Tech are off near 4% following NXP's after-market earnings report yesterday. The company met revenue expectations but the outlook missed forecast and may be a precursor to a tough quarter for tech names. NXP shares remain off by near 6% pre-market.
- Fed's Powell is set to give welcoming remarks at 0830ET, and while he'll steer clear of monetary policy inside the pre-meeting media black, Fed regulation is becoming an increasingly political topic. Not directly linked but a latest example was US Tsy Sec Bessent on X yesterday: "Today in a CNBC interview, I called for a review of the Federal Reserve [and] its non-monetary policy operations."
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: Regional Fed Mfg/Non-Mfg, Non-Pol Fed Speak
Jul-22 10:34
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 07/22 0730 Fed VC Bowman on CNBC
- 07/22 0830 Fed Chair Powell opening remarks regulatory conf
- 07/22 0830 Philadelphia Fed Non-Mfg Activity (-25.0, --)
- 07/22 1000 Richmond Fed Mfg Index (-7, -2)
- 07/22 1000 Richmond Fed Business Conditions (-16, --)
- 07/22 1130 US Tsy $80B 6W bill auction
- 07/22 1300 Fed VC Bowman fireside chat large bank conf (no text, Q&A)
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Bull Cycle Remains In Play
Jul-22 10:33
- In FX, EURUSD has recovered from last week’s 1.1557 low, on Jul 17. Recent weakness is considered corrective. Support to watch lies at the 50day EMA , at 1.1525. A clear break of this average is required to signal a stronger reversal. For now, trend indicators continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. A stronger resumption of gains would open 1.1829, the Jul 1 high and the bull trigger.
- GBPUSD continues to trade above its recent lows. For now, short-term gains appear corrective and a bear threat remains present. Recent weakness resulted in a break of trendline support currently at 1.3480 - drawn from the Jan 13 low. The breach strengthens a bear theme, exposing 1.3335 next, the May 20 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3517, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a potential base.
- A bull cycle in USDJPY remains in place despite the latest pullback and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. Recent strength has resulted in a breach of resistance at 148.03, the Jun 23 high, and a move through key resistance at 148.65, the May 12 high. The break strengthens the bullish theme and opens 149.38, 50.0% of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg. On the downside, key short-term support to monitor is 145.85, the 50-day EMA.
