US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Bull Cycle Remains In Play
Jul-02 15:44
- RES 4: 114-14 High Apr 7 and key resistance
- RES 3: 113-07 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg
- RES 2: 112-23 High May 1 and key resistance
- RES 1: 112-12+/15 High Jul 1 / 61.8% of the Apr 7 - 11 sell-off
- PRICE: 111-22+ @ 16:43 BST Jul 02
- SUP 1: 111-18 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 111-07+ 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 110-30 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 110-16 Low Jun 20
A bull cycle in Treasury futures remains intact, however, price reversed hard off highs into Tuesday’s close. Attention is on the next important resistance at 112-15, the 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 steep sell-off. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a bull theme and expose 112-23, the May 1 high. Note that the uptrend is overbought, a pullback would unwind this position. First key support to watch is 111.07+, the 20-day EMA.
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FED: US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.150%(ALLOT 87.95%)
Jun-02 15:33
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.150%(ALLOT 87.95%)
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 29.30% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 11.26% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 59.45% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.13
FED: US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.250%(ALLOT 69.18%)
Jun-02 15:33
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.250%(ALLOT 69.18%)
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 45.07% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 6.39% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 48.54% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.68
BONDS: Europe Pi: Eurex Largely Flat/Long Into Rolls
Jun-02 15:30
The June/September Eurex futures roll started at the end of last week, with volumes today suggesting most contracts are likely to be roughly 40% complete as of the close of Monday's trade vs 10-20% Friday).
- Generally speaking there are few positioning updates from our May 20 pre-Gilt roll (which is completed) Europe Pi, which showed Schatz in long positioning and Bobl/Buxl/Bund in flat positioning heading into the rolls (the latest move to "short" in the table below for Bund looks roll-related).
- OAT remained flat and BTP remained long going into the rolls. Gilts are showing "flat" vs "very long" into the roll but we would take caution in interpreting the structural positioning given the rolling process.
- (Note also in the table below, "Latest week's trade" becomes more difficult to interpret in this context due to dropping OIs.)
