GILT TECHS: (U5) Bearish Daily Close Tuesday
- RES 4: 93.23 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 93.13 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - 18 bear leg
- RES 2: 93.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 92.84 High Aug 5
- PRICE: 92.05 @ Close Aug 13
- SUP 1: 91.51 Low Aug 12
- SUP 2: 91.44/08 Low Aug 1 / Jul 18 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 90.97 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
- SUP 4: 90.59 Low May 29
Having traded higher mid-last week, Gilt futures faded alongside global bonds into the Tuesday close. Having pulled back to 91.51, markets have reversed any bullish reversal signal stemming from the August 1st daily candle, exposing key support and the bear trigger at 91.08, the Jul 18 low. With S/T momentum pointed lower, markets need to build a base at 92.17 to establish any recovery.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
WTI TECHS: (Q5) Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: $82.62 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $80.43 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $80.00 - Psychological round number
- RES 1: $71.20/78.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-24 range / High Jun 23
- PRICE: $66.65 @ 07:19 BST Jul 15
- SUP 1: $65.46/64.00 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 24
- SUP 2: $58.87 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $54.81 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $54.13 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
WTI futures maintain a bearish tone following the reversal from the Jun 23 high, and recent gains still appear corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.46. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would expose $58.87, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to monitor is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range. Key resistance is at $78.40, the Jun 23 high.
GOLD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
- RES 2: $3395.1/3451.3 - High Jun 23 / 16
- RES 1: $3375.0 - High Jul 14
- PRICE: $3360.6 @ 07:26 BST Jul 15
- SUP 1: $3282.8/3248.7 - Low Jul 9 / Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $3204.7 - Low May 20
- SUP 3: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support
- SUP 4: $3085.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 22 bull leg
A bull cycle in Gold that started Jun 30, remains intact and the yellow metal is holding on to its recent gains. Note that medium-term trend conditions are bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. An extension would expose $3395.1, the Jun 23 high, and $3451.3, the Jun 16 high. On the downside, the bear trigger is $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. First support to watch is 3282.8, the Jul 9 low.
BUNDS: Yields Lower, New Schatz Issuance Eyed
5+-Year German yields are 1.0-1.5bp lower in early cash trade. BBG’s generic 2-Year yield is showing ~2bp, but this accounts for this morning’s EUR5bln introduction of the new 1.90% Sep-27 Schatz, so any optical twist flattening is artificial.
