US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 112-15 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 sell-off
- RES 3: 112-12+ High Jul 1 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 111-13+/111-28 High Jul 10 / High Jul 3
- RES 1: 110-30+ 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 110-21+ @ 11:08 BST Jul 18
- SUP 1: 110-08+ Low Jul 14 & 16
- SUP 2: 110-03 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
- SUP 3: 109-28 Low Jun 6 and 11
- SUP 4: 109.25 Low May 27
Treasury futures are trading above their recent highs but maintain a softer tone. An important support at 110-17, 61.8% of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg, has been breached. Note that price has also traded through a trendline support at 110-26. The line is drawn from the May 22 low. A continuation would open 110-03, the 76.4% retracement. Initial resistance is at 111-30+, the 20-day EMA.
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LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: FOMC, House Starts/Permits, Jobless Claims
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 18-Jun 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (12.5%, --)
- 18-Jun 0830 Housing Starts (1.361M, 1.350M), MoM (1.6%, -0.8%)
- 18-Jun 0830 Building Permits (1.422M, 1.422M), MoM (-4.0%, 0.0%)
- 18-Jun 0830 Initial Jobless Claims (248k, 245k)
- 18-Jun 0830 Continuing Claims (1.956M, 1.941M)
- 18-Jun 1130 US Tsy $65B 4W & $55B 8W bill auctions
- 18-Jun 1300 US Tsy $60B 17W bill auction
- 18-Jun 1400 FOMC rate annc
- 18-Jun 1600 Net Long-term TIC Flows ($161.8B, --)
- 18-Jun 1600 Total Net TIC Flows ($254.3B, --)
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
- Note: Cash Treasury and stock exchanges are closed Thursday for Juneteenth holiday, along with open outcry pits in Chicago but equity and debt futures will be open for an abbreviated trading session.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Resistance Is Intact For Now
- RES 4: 111-30 76.4% retracement of the May 1 - 22 downleg
- RES 3: 111-21 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 111-14+ High Jun 5 & 61.8% of the May 1 - 22 downleg
- RES 1: 111-13 High Jun 13
- PRICE: 110-28+ @ 11:01 BST Jun 18
- SUP 1: 110-10+/109-28 Low Jun 16 / Low Jun 6 / 11
- SUP 2: 109-12+ Low May 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 109-09+ Low Apr 11 and key support
- SUP 4: 108-25+ 0.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 11 - May 1 price swing
Key resistance in Treasury futures at 111-14+, a Fibonacci retracement and the Jun 5 high, remains intact for now. Clearance of this hurdle would be bullish and highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 111-30, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at 109-28, the Jun 6 / 11 low. A breach of this level would be bearish and open the bear trigger at 109-12+, the May 22 low.
EU-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 3/6/12-Month EU-Bills
| Type | 3-month EU-bill | 6-month EU-bill | 12-month EU-bill |
| Maturity | Sep 5, 2026 | Dec 5, 2025 | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Amount | E853mln | E862mln | E914mln |
| Target | E1.0bln | E1.0bln | E1.0bln |
| Previous | E847mln | E1.248bln | E1.217bln |
| Avg yield | 1.935% | 1.956% | 1.951% |
| Previous | 1.942% | 1.943% | 1.899% |
| Bid-to-cover | 1.44x | 1.51x | 1.72x |
| Previous | 3.18x | 2.09x | 2.22x |
| Previous date | Jun 04, 2025 | Jun 04, 2025 | Jun 04, 2025 |
