US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 112-04+ High May 2
- RES 3: 111-25 High May 7
- RES 2: 111-05+ High May 9
- RES 1: 110-21+/23 50-day EMA / High May 16 and a key resistance
- PRICE: 110-10+ @ 11:20 BST May 28
- SUP 1: 109-12+ Low May 22
- SUP 2: 109-09+ Low Apr 11 and key support
- SUP 3: 109-00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 108-25+ 0.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 11 - May 1 price swing
A bear cycle in Treasury futures remains in play for now, and short-term gains are considered corrective. The recent breach of 110-03+, 76.4% of the Apr 11 - May 1 bull leg, strengthened a bearish theme and has exposed key support at 109-09+, the Apr 11 low and a bear trigger. Key near-term resistance has been defined at 110-23, the May 16 high. A clear break of this level is required to signal a potential reversal.
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EQUITIES: A busy Earning Schedule this Week
A very busy Week ahead on the Data front, but also a busy Earnings schedule, and big focus on supply chains.
- TUESDAY: Coca Cola, GM, Kraftz, Paypal, Pfizer, Booking, Starbucks, Visa, UPS.
- WEDNESDAY: Caterpillar, Meta, Microsoft, Qualcomm.
- TURSDAY: Eli Lilly, Estee Lauder, Mastercard, Mc Donald, Moderna, Amazon, Apple
- FRIDAY: Chevron, Exxon Mobile.
LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: Dallas Fed Mfg Activity, Tsy Refunding Est
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 28-Apr 1030 Dallas Fed Mfg Activity (-16.3, -14.1)
- 28-Apr 1130 US Tsy $76B 13W & $68B 26W bill auctions
- 28-Apr 1500 US Tsy Quarterly refunding estimates (refunding annc on Wednesday at 0830ET)
US TSY FUTURES: CFTC CoT Shows A Managers Extend Long, While Funds Add To Short
The latest CFTC CoT report pointed to an extension of the broad positioning amongst both asset managers (longs added in most contracts) and leveraged funds (shorts added in most contracts).
- Only TY futures saw breaks of the wider themes, with asset managers trimming longs in that contract, while leveraged funds reduced shorts.
- Asset managers added a net ~$27.1mn DV01 equivalent of net long exposure across the curve, while leveraged funds added a net ~$11.4mn DV01 equivalent of net short exposure across the curve.
- Asset managers remain net long across the curve, while leveraged funds remain net short in all contracts.
- Broader non-commercial net positioning saw an extension of shorts in all contracts outside of TY futures (see table below for greater details), where shorts were trimmed. The cohort added a net ~$13mn DV01 equivalent of fresh net shorts across the curve. The cohort remains net short across the curve.
Source: MNI - Market News/CFTC/Bloomberg
