US TSY OPTIONS: TYU Downside Structure Lifted

ERM6 98.37/98.25/97.93 broken p ladder, bought for flat in 6k.

• The USD Index is firmer, but well off session highs - keeping markets clear of any material test on the downtrendline resistance drawn off the early February high (today crossing at 99.462, just below the 100.004 50-dma). This level remains a key focus headed through the several inflation releases this week (CPI today, PPI tomorrow).
• Meanwhile, the front-end of the G10 FX vol curve remains subdued headed into today's CPI print, with vols sold on the back of confirmation that US and Chinese officials had agreed on an approach for trade negotiations - that now awaits sign-off from the Chinese, US Presidents. Statements from both sides show little substantive progress on the key issues, leaving an element of uncertainty on the table ahead.
• EUR/USD is well off lows, but spot remains inside the weekly range - the ECB's wage tracker saw a minor upward revision - leaving little ripple in ECB rates markets that price one further 25bps rate cut before year-end.
• With overnight USD/JPY vols briefly above 15 points today, either side of the post-Liberation Day average, which suggests the underlying spot downtrend remains intact for now, despite the bounce off last week's lows. As such, 142.12 / 145.29 remain the key parameters.

E-minis slightly lower since the Chinese readout following trade talks with the U.S. crossed, but the moves are tiny.

• It doesn't look like any meaningful agreements have been struck, with Chinese language a mix of constructive and reaffirming the country's ability to act to defend its interests.
• CNH FX unmoved.