US TSYS: TYH6 Near Key Tech Level as Yields Grind Lower
US bond futures are up this morning with the 10-Yr up +05+ at 112-12+ with a reasonable bid tone from the open. The gains see TYH6 near the 100-day EMA of 112-14+, its upper resistance point. A break above could see the 20-day EMA above at 112-22+ come into play.
Cash is rallying across the curve with the 10-Yr consolidating below 4.20%, its recent upper range.
- The 2-Yr is flat at 3.534%
- The 5-Yr is down -0.7bps to 3.726%
- The 10-Yr is down -1.0bps to 4.141%
- The 30-Yr is down -1.0bps to 4.778%
The market will turn it's attention tonight to Initial Jobless claims. Current forecasts are for a modest increase to 220k from 191k for the prior release.
There will be a US$69bn 17-week auction, a US$85bn 4-week auction, a US$80bn 8-week auction and a US$22bn 30-Year re-opening.
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CNH: USD/CNY Fix Edges Up, Fixing Error Steady, CNH/JPY Probing Higher
The USD/CNY fix printed at 7.0866, versus a BBG market consensus of 7.1197. The fixing is a touch above yesterday's outcome, while the fixing error is little changed at -331pips. USD/CNH is a little higher post the fixing, but at 7.1250 remains within recent ranges. Broader USD sentiment is mostly positive so far today, with USD/JPY probing recent highs near 154.50. The CNH/JPY cross is above 21.67, with upside focus to be on recent highs around 21.70.
CHINA: Central Bank Injects CNY286.3bn via OMO
Money market rates still remain elevated as the PBOC has another day of significant liquidity injection. The overnight money market rate spiked this morning to its highest level since July.
- The PBOC issued CNY403.8n of 7-day reverse repo at 1.4% during this morning's operations.
- Today's maturities CNY117.5bn.
- Net liquidity injects CNY286.3bn.
- The PBOC monitors and maintains liquidity in the interbank system through the issuance of reverse repo.
- The CFETS Pledged Repo Deposit Institutions 7 Day Weighted is at 1.43%, from prior close of 1.49%.
- The China overnight interbank repo rate is at 1.53%, from the prior close of 1.45%.
- The China 7-day interbank repo rate is at 1.54%, from the prior close of 1.50%.
JPY: USD/JPY Probing Recent Highs Near 154.50, 155.00 Next Upside Focus Point
USD/JPY is pressing towards 154.45/50, which has marked recent highs. There has been a variety of official comments this morning, although the only directly FX related one was the remark around weaker yen driving import costs higher. The rest are largely focused on upcoming fiscal support and broader policy goals (positive real wages etc). Broader USD sentiment is firmer, with all of the G10 down versus the USD at this stage (yen is slightly underperforming). US equity futures are ticking up. A clean break higher in USD/JPY is likely to see 155.00 targeted.
Fig 1: USD/JPY Probing Recent Highs
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
