US TSYS: TYH6 Key Resistance Eyed, Jobless Claims & Earlier Auctions Headline

Nov-26 11:55

Treasuries continue to see impact from yesterday’s bull flattening on Bloomberg sources seeing Hassett as a frontrunner for the next Fed Chair role. There have recently been short-lived intraday gains in spillover from Gilts ahead of the UK budget, back to small losses on the day supported by stronger risk sentiment. 

  • Thanksgiving schedule. Cash and futures full session today, cash closed & future early close on Thursday, cash & futures early close on Friday.
  • Note the earlier auction timings ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday - see below.
  • Cash yields are 0.1-0.7bp higher, led by the belly with today's 7Y supply possibly in mind.
  • TYH6 trades at 113-18+ (-00+) off yesterday’s latest highs of 113-22+ on solid cumulative volumes of 320k, still boosted by the roll but with it nearing completion.
  • Yesterday’s climb saw it step closer to latest resistance at 113-23 (Oct 23 high), increasingly eyeing a key resistance at 113-29+ (Oct 17 high).
  • Data: MBA mortgages (0700ET), Weekly jobless claims (0830ET), Durable goods Sep prelim (0830ET), MNI Chicago PMI Nov (0945ET), Dallas Fed weekly economic index (1130ET)
  • Fedspeak: Fed Beige Book (1400ET)
  • Coupon issuance: US Tsy $44B 7Y Note - 91282CPM7 (1130ET). Yesterday's 5Y tailed slightly by 0.2bp although bid-to-cover increased from 2.38 to 2.41 whilst last month's 7Y auction saw its largest tail in over a year.
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $100B 4W & $85B 8W bill auctions (1000ET), $69B 17W bill auctions (1130ET)
  • Politics: No public events scheduled for Trump

Historical bullets

CROSS ASSET: Bonds and FX Month End

Oct-27 11:49

Bloomberg Bonds:

  • US Tsys: +0.06yr (small).
  • EU Govies: +0.08yr (average).
  • UK Govies: +0.16yr (large, 0.18yr is the October historical high).

MS Bonds:

  • US Tsys: +0.03yr (small).
  • EU Govies: +0.05yr (small).
  • UK Govies: +0.13yr (large).

Barclays FX:

  • Their rebalancing model indicates weak Dollar selling against all majors.

OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline

Oct-27 11:47
  • EUR/USD: Oct28 $1.1625-30(E1.3bln); Oct29 $1.1640-50(E1.2bln)
  • USD/JPY: Oct28 Y152.95-00($1.0bln)
  • AUD/USD: Oct29 $0.6530(A$1.5bln)
  • USD/CAD: Oct30 C$1.3675($1.1bln), C$1.4015($1.4bln)

EQUITY OPTIONS: BNP Ratio Call Spread

Oct-27 11:41

BNP (18th Sep) 80/100cs 1x3, bought for 1.4 in 2k (2kx6k).