BONDS: TY & Gilt Futures Pierce Yesterday's Lows

Jan-23 09:29

Some weakness evident in core global FI markets, with TY, Bund & gilt futures at fresh session lows. TY and gilt futures have pierced yesterday’s lows during the move.

  • A couple of factors seemingly at play here:
  • An uptick in oil and EUR natural gas prices.
  • Setup for French supply.
  • EGB spreads to Bunds generally wider, driven by the presence French supply and a downtick in equities, BTPs & OATs widen by ~2bp at the 10-Year point.
  • French fiscal headlines (covered earlier) another potential spread widening catalyst.

Historical bullets

CROSS ASSET: MONTH END EXTENSION (update)

Dec-24 08:21

This should be a non event for Year End, they are small, and only the lower liquidity could get Govies moving, but unlikely, as investors turn their attention to 2025.

Bloomberg Bonds:

  • US Tsys: +0.07yr (small, average).
  • EU Govies: +0.04yr (small).
  • UK Govies: -0.02yr (non event).

MS Bonds:

  • US Tsys: +0.05yr (small).
  • EU Govies: +0.03yr (small).
  • UK Govies: To contract (non event).

Barclays FX:

  • Their Quarter rebalancing model only shows a Weak Dollar Buying signal.

GILTS: Opens within the Calls

Dec-24 08:09
  • A slightly higher open for Gilt, was just down 2 ticks at 92.46 vs close, a small wide range of 16 ticks on the Open, but as expected very poor volumes as also seen in the Sonia Strip.
  • In Terms of Technical, support is at 91.87, while resistance moves down to 92.92.

GILTS: Opening calls

Dec-24 07:57

Gilt Calls will be taken from Tnotes, with Europe closed, 92.40, would be 8 ticks down.