EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Turkish Airlines: Bidding for Air Europa?

Jun-20 13:54

(THYAO: Ba3pos/BB/BB)

“Turkish Airlines Mulls Bid for Air Europa Minority Stake: Rtrs” BBG

  • Not material for Turkish Airlines credit at all, given the co. strong balance sheet with USD5.4bn in cash and investments, modest leverage (target of 2-2.5x, currently around adj. net debt to EBITDA of1.6x) and healthy FCF generation (around USD3bn per annum).
  • The minority stake is 20% in Air Europa, with IAG currently owning 20% and Globalia the majority 80%. IAG has previously been in talks to acquire the airline pre Covid which didn’t materialise. Other interested parties include Lufthansa and Air-France-KLM with a price tag touted in the region of EUR240mn. 

Historical bullets

STIR: Natixis Recommend Receiving Sep '25 ECB-Dated OIS

May-21 13:53

Natixis recommend receiving Sep ’25 ECB-dated OIS, targeting a move to 167bp, with a stop set at 183bp (177bp last).

  • They note that “in addition to the de-escalation of trade tensions, the market has recently adopted the 'steady hand policy' of Schnabel, which involves integrating a potential ECB terminal rate at 2.00%”.
  • Natixis see a higher probability of the ECB going below 2.00% by September (rather than halting at 2.00%) for several reasons, namely broader macro weakness, inflation expectations, higher risk of a hard landing for the U.S. than the market prices at present and expectations for a continued weakening of wage growth.

BONDS: MNI Europe Pi: Gilts Very Long Going Into Quarterly Roll

May-21 13:51

We've published our latest Europe Pi positioning update - Download Full Document Here

  • Long structural positioning has shown some signs of fading over the course of May, though there still aren't any outright shorts across European bond futures contracts, with multiple "longs".
  • The quarterly Gilt roll has begun, with the contract in "very long" territory (first notice is May 29 and there is a holiday Monday so rolls have started on the early side;  for Eurex it's June 6).
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Source: Eurex, ICE, BBG, MNI Calculations

SONIA: Large Package Option

May-21 13:44

SFIZ5 95.50/96.00/96.50c fly vs 97.00/96.50ps 1x2, sold the fly at -15 in 18.5k.