TURKEY: Turkey Raises Natural Gas Price by 24.6% for Households
- Turkish natural gas prices will increase by 7.86% for industrial users and by 24.6% for residential users starting July 2, according to a regulator statement published late Tuesday. The latter is broadly in-line with the central bank’s year-end inflation forecast of 24%
- The CEO of Turkey’s Garanti BBVA said in an interview with Dunya that he expects the central bank to cut the one-week repo rate by 300bps in July. That is the latest local sell-side desk looking for a large rate cut at the July 24 meeting. Ekonomi reported earlier in the week that heads of both Isbank and Ziraat Bank have said that they expect a 3.5ppt cut and a “meaningful reduction,” respectively, to the repo rate. The newspaper noted then that the timing of those comments were significant as they followed not too long after a meeting between CBRT Governor Karahan and banking sector representatives.
- Tens of thousands of opposition supporters gathered in Istanbul at a rally to mark 100 days since mayor Ekrem Imamoglu’s arrest, Cumhuriyet reported.
- Trade Minister Omer Bolat will announce preliminary trade data for June shortly. CPI data for June is set for release tomorrow morning.
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Historical bullets
SILVER TECHS: Still Looking For Gains
- RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28
- RES 1: $33.686/700 - High Apr 25 / High May 22
- PRICE: $33.260 @ 08:10 BST Jun 2
- SUP 1: $31.651 - Low May 15
- SUP 2: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24
- SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24
A bullish theme in Silver remains intact and price is trading closer to its recent highs. Key short-term support has been defined at $31.651, the May 15 low. A clear break of this level is required to highlight a reversal and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open $30.915, the Apr 11 low. For bulls, resistance to watch is $33.686, the Apr 25 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
BONDS: EUREX ROLL PACE
Bond traders will navigate through the Data and Risk Events to roll their Positions into September this Week.
Pace as off Friday:
- Buxl: 8%.
- Bund: 12%.
- Bobl: 9%.
- Schatz: 11%.
- BTP: 10%.
- BTS: 12%.
- OAT: 15%.
USDCAD TECHS: Approaching The Bear Trigger
- RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4
- RES 2: 1.3957/1.4016 50-day EMA / High May 12 and 13
- RES 1: 1.3854 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3694 @ 08:07 BST Jun 2
- SUP 1: 1.3686 Low May 26 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
- SUP 3: 1.3579 1.500 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
A downtrend in USDCAD remains intact. The pair is trading lower today and is approaching support at 1.3686, the May 26 low and bear trigger. A breach of this short-term support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and maintain the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This would open 1.3643, the Oct 9 2024 low. Resistance at the 50-day EMA is at 1.3957 - a key level. The 20- EMA is at 1.3854.
