EM CEEMEA CREDIT: TURKEY: PMI Rises to 48.9 in Dec, Highest Level in a Year
[MNI Macro]
• Turkey’s manufacturing PMI rose to 48.9 in December from 48.0 in November, marking the highest reading for the series since December 2024. New orders rose to 48.3 compared to a prior 46.9, easing at the slowest pace since March 2024, with some firms noting improvements in customer demand. However, both total new business and new export orders continued to moderate. Production was scaled back, though at a slower rate than in November, while employment saw a marginal reduction.
• As a reminder, Turkey raised fixed excise taxes on fuel, tobacco and alcoholic beverages on Wednesday, setting the increases below producer inflation. The government increased the fixed tax on gasoline and diesel by 6.95% and on cigarettes and alcoholic drinks by 7.95% in one of its two so-called fixed excise tax adjustments of the year (the second will come in July).
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USDCAD TECHS: Bull Channel Base Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 1.4314 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16
- RES 3: 1.4211 Channel top drawn from Jul 23 low
- RES 2: 1.4140/67 High Nov 5 / 50.0% of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4030/1.4131 20-day EMA / High Nov 21
- PRICE: 1.3968 @ 08:03 GMT Dec 3
- SUP 1: 1.3939 Low Nov 28
- SUP 2: 1.3935 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low
- SUP 3: 1.3888 Low Oct 29 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.3833 Low Sep 24
A bear theme in USDCAD remains intact. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA and attention is to 1.3935, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Jul 23 low. A clear break of the channel base would highlight a stronger bear cycle. On the upside, a reversal higher is required to refocus attention on 1.4140, the Nov 5 high and key resistance. Initial resistance to watch is 1.4030, 20-day EMA.
NZD: Westpac Have A Bias To Buy NZD/USD On Dips
Westpac write “after jumping around a cent in response to the RBNZ’s hawkish MPS last week, NZD/USD has consolidated in the low 0.57s. We see justification for further gains towards 0.5800 multi-week, and possibly even higher”.
- They note that “the RBNZ’s shift in stance, effectively declaring the easing cycle complete, was supported by the recent evolution of the New Zealand economy. If this evolution continues, markets will price rate hikes to start even earlier than December 2026. In parallel, Fed pricing risks deeper rate cuts during the next few months, imparting a negative bias to the USD. Our trading tactic is thus to consider buying on any dips to around 0.5670 (a 50% corrective retracement)”.
AUDUSD TECHS: Has Cleared Short-Term Trendline Resistance
- RES 4: 0.6660 High Sep 18
- RES 3: 0.6640 76.4% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 21 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6618 High Oct 29 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 1: 0.6598 61.8% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 21 bear leg
- PRICE: 0.6579 @ 07:59 GMT Dec 3
- SUP 1: 0.6517 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6466/21 Low Nov 26 / 21
- SUP 3: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6404 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Sep 17 bull cycle
AUDUSD continues to appreciate and price action remains above the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This week’s gains have resulted in a breach of a short-term trendline resistance at 0.6544, drawn from the Sep 17 high. The break strengthens a bull theme and highlights a stronger reversal, opening 0.6598 next, a Fibonacci retracement. First support is at 0.6512, the 20-day EMA. A move below this average would signal a possible reversal.
