UKRAINE: Turkey Looks To Host US, Russia, Ukraine Leaders After Next Talks
Speaking in Kyiv, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan says that "I hope technical talks [on a peace deal] will largely be completed in the next round of talks, and [then] Turkey can host the leaders of the US, Russia, and Ukraine." Adds that "Ukraine's NATO membership is an issue of debate within the alliance given the ongoing war", and that "the issue was not brought up during talks in Moscow this week." Fidan says, "Turkey is ready to host the Russian and Ukrainian sides." Fidan: "As long as both sides remain at the negotiating table, there can be progress."
- US envoy for Russia and Ukraine Keith Kellogg said President Donald Trump was becoming "frustrated" with the "unreasonableness" of Russia with regard to a peace deal. However, he also added that Moscow's opposition to Ukrainian NATO membership was a "fair concern".
- The US has reiterated its threat of walking away from talks, with acting deputy US ambassador to the UN John Kelley warning Washington could impose further sanctions on Russia if it does not agree to a 30-day ceasefire. "We want to work with Russia, including on this peace initiative and an economic package. There is no military solution to this conflict. The deal on offer now is Russia's best possible outcome. President Putin should take the deal."
- The US is posing its threat of walking away from talks as a detriment to Russia, but Ukraine and its allies have voiced that such a move would give Russia carte blanche to continue, and even escalate, its attacks on Ukraine.
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FOREX: USD/JPY Struggles on Approach to Recovery High Ahead of GDP
- JPY is weaker against all others early Wednesday, however USD/JPY is yet to make any meaningful test on the Friday recovery high at 144.03. With tariff limbo still in place, and no trade negotiations to speak of between the US and China, G10 currencies are awaiting the next macro cue or headline to trade with any real conviction. That said, EUR/GBP continues its losing streak, with the cross hitting a new lower low of 0.8482 in overnight trade.
- Moves follow the cross trading through a major support area we flagged last week at 0.8520-31 - marking both the early April pullback low as well as the 50% retracement of the tariff-inspired upleg off 0.8323.
- Meanwhile, Australian CPI for Q1 came in toward the upper-end of expectations, helping AUD/USD recover well into the European morning. Spot faltered on the approach toward yesterday's 0.6450 highs, however, meaning the pair has traded either side of the 0.64 handle for eight consecutive sessions. The 200-dma defines the first topside level, at 0.6460.
- US data picks up Wednesday, with MNI Chicago PMI for April seen moderating further to 45.9 from 47.6 previously. Advance GDP, Personal income, spending and the latest PCE stats for March are also due. Central bank speak sees BoE's Lombardelli, ECB's Villeroy & Makhlouf as well as the BoC minutes. The Fed remain inside their pre-decision media blackout period.
GILT AUCTION RESULTS: Decent 4.375% Mar-28 auction
Decent 4.375% Mar-28 auction: 3.48x bid-to-cover ratio for the GBP4.5bln issued. That’s the highest bid-to-cover for this Gilt since the November 2024 launch. The auction size was also larger than the previous issues (which ranged between GBP4-4.25bln).
- The 0.2bp tail was the joint tightest on record for this line, alongside the January re-opening (0.4bp tail in March, 0.5bp in Feb).
- Lowest accepted price of 101.438 above the 101.4305 pre-auction mid-price. The secondary market price has moved up to 101.467 following the publication of the results.
AUSTRIA AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week
Austria has announced it will be looking to sell a combined E1.75bln of the following at its auction next Tuesday, May 6:
- the 2.95% Feb-35 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A3HU25)
- the 3.15% Jun-44 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A0VRQ6)
