EM CEEMEA CREDIT: TURKEY: Inflation Est Rise in Latest CBRT Survey
[MNI Macro]
• Turkey's inflation estimate in the next 12 months rose to 23.26% in October from 22.25% in September, according to the CBRT’s latest survey of market participants. The 24 month estimate also rose, to 17.36% from 16.78%, as did the year-end estimate, to 31.77% from 29.86%. The policy rate estimate for the next meeting fell to 39% from 40.56%, while the full-year GDP growth estimate rose to 3.3% from 3.2% in September.
• Meanwhile, Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz said at a press conference yesterday that the Turkish economy is estimated to expand 3.3 percent this year and 3.8 percent in 2026 amid global uncertainties and moderate global growth outlook. He said Turkey’s medium-term economic program aims to strengthen financial stability, fiscal discipline and reduce inflation to single digits permanently, ensuring price stability.
• No other data releases are scheduled for today. S&P Global may publish an assessment of Turkey after markets close (current rating: BB-; Outlook Stable).
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
FED FUNDS FUTURES: FFF6/G6 Lifted
FFF6/G6 paper paid -12.0 on ~3.9K.
EGB FUNDING UPDATE: Netherlands DSTA Q4 Funding Update
- The DSTA has reiterated its issuance target of E40bln on capital markets. The total borrowing requirement has been lowered by E1.8bln due to a lower expected cash deficit.
- The DSTA will hold three DSL auction in Q4: E2.0-2.5bln of the on-the-run 10-year 2.50% Jul-35 DSL (ISIN: NL0015002F72) on 11 November. There will also be two auctions of existing DSLs held on 14 October and 25 November.
- The six usual DTC auction dates will all be utilised and see both short-dated and longer-dated DTCs on offer at each.
- The DSTA will release its 2026 outlook on Friday 12 December.
JPY: Key Support In USD/JPY Holds
Key support in the form of the August 14 low (146.21) in USD/JPY held to the pip in Tokyo trade, with broader stabilisation in the USD helping the pair back to 146.65 through early London trade.
- This evening’s Fed decision will of course be key for at least shorter-term direction.
- Westpac look to sell USD/JPY on any break below 146.20 with a target of 144.00 and a stop set at 147.05. They believe that “risks around the FOMC are tilted asymmetrically, with risk appetite channels likely a key driver in the event of an underwhelming/net hawkish outcome, capping USD/JPY upside. BoJ Governor Ueda likely keeps a cautious door open to the possibility of tightening monetary policy in Oct. The entry of centrist Koizumi in the LDP race lowers the tail risks of a disruptive loosening of Japanese fiscal policy”.
