EM CEEMEA CREDIT: TURKEY: FX reserves up WoW, supportive

• In the FI space, a bull cycle in Bund futures traded in a volatile manner Monday. For now, a bull cycle remains in play and a pullback is considered corrective. A fresh short-term cycle high yesterday signals scope for a continuation of the uptrend. The contract has cleared 131.14, 76.4% of the Feb 28 - Mar 11 bear leg. This strengthens the bullish condition and opens 132.56, the Feb 28 high. Initial firm support to watch lies at 129.15, the 20-day EMA.
• A sharp sell-off in the Gilt futures contract highlights a strong reversal of the recent bull cycle between Mar 27 - Apr 7. A continuation down would expose the next key support located at 90.55, the Mar 27 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a full reversal of the Mar 27 - Apr 7 rally. On the upside, a resumption of gains would initially open 92.70 and 93.38, the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 high-low range.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking to CNBC confirms that President Donald Trump will be personally involved in tariff negotiations. Says that any trade negotiations in the future are not as a result of the volatility in financial markets, but 'massive inbound calls' from other countries. 

• Says that 'everything is on the table' with regard to what can be negotiated on tariffs, referring specifically to a question on European VAT.
• Bessent says conversations have happened in the White House with regard to what countries to prioritize in trade talks. "If there are solid proposals, we can end up with good deals."
• Bessent: "It would be a mistake for anyone to think [Trump doesn't have the upper hand]."
• Using a poker analogy, Bessent says China is escalating the trade war while "playing with a pair of twos [a weak hand]".
• Bessent says that he was "not involved" in the calculation of the numbers of 'reciprocal' tariffs.

• In similar vein to its antipodean counterpart, NZD bounced well overnight amid the recovery for risk sentiment. Yesterday’s low ~0.5510 for NZDUSD matched closely with the 2022 lows, increasing the significance of this area of technical support.
• Overall, the latest developments have prompted moving average studies to move into a bear mode position, underpinning the bearish momentum for NZDUSD. Downside was exacerbated on a break back below a short-term pivot at 0.5711 on Friday, which now provides resistance for the pair.
• SocGen believe that latest developments re Japan and China support the idea that tariffs could be lowered as deals are made. They say that long AUD/NZD appeals if as expected the RBNZ remains dovish and cuts rates again overnight.
• A 25bp rate cut is unanimously expected, bringing the OCR to 3.50%. Data have remained soft but still signal a gradual recovery and so the MPC is likely to ease in line with its February guidance, while maintaining its easing bias. RBNZ dated OIS is pricing a cumulative 98bps by November 2025. Our preview of the RBNZ meeting is here: https://mni.marketnews.com/3RF3qIF