TURKEY: CBRT Leave One-Week Repo Rate Unchanged at 50%

• RES 3: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
• RES 2: 96.110 - High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 95.923 - High Jun 14
• PRICE: 95.770 @ 16:25 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 95.235 - 76.4% retracement of the Nov - Dec ‘23 rally
• SUP 2: 94.965 - Low Oct 31 ‘23
• SUP 3: 94.866 - 2.618 proj of the Dec 28 - Jan 19 - Feb 2 price swing

The corrective rally in Aussie 10y futures persisted into last week’s close, with new highs printed at 95.923. Any resumption of weakness would signal scope for a move towards 95.235, a Fibonacci retracement point on the continuation chart. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 96.110 on the continuation chart. A firm break would highlight a possible reversal and signal scope for further gains.

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
• RES 1: 1.3792 High Jun 11
• PRICE: 1.3711 @ 16:42 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 1.3675 Low June 21
• SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4

USDCAD has traded lower this week and has pierced the Jun 12 low of 1.3680, and 1.3676, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of these supports would signal scope for a continuation lower near-term, towards key support at 1.3590, the May 16 low. A clear break of this level would threaten a bullish theme. The trend outlook remains bullish, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the medium-term resistance at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high.