EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Turk Telekom: 2Q 2025 Results Headlines

• RES 4: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: 173.43 High Jul 12 ‘24
• RES 2: 172.92 High Jul 16 ‘24
• RES 1: 172.54 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 172.50 @ 07:17 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 170.81  Low Jul 11  
• SUP 2: 169.75 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1   
• SUP 4: 167.09 50-day EMA   

The trend condition in EURJPY is unchanged, a bull cycle is in play and the cross continues to appreciate. Fresh cycle highs confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 172.92, the Jul 16 ‘24 high. Support to watch lies at 169.75, the 20-day EMA.

Swedish money market participant inflation expectations fell across time horizons in July. Most notably, 5-year ahead CPIF expectations fell two tenths to 1.8%. That looks like the lowest since July 2021. The survey was conducted between June 30 – July 6, so did not include the stronger-than-expected flash June inflation report. The Riksbank will likely need to see several 5-year prints below the 2% target to become concerned about a de-anchoring of inflation expectations, not just in the monthly money market participant survey but also the broader quarterly survey (which includes social partners’ expectations).

• 1-year ahead CPIF expectations fell a tenth to 1.9%. 1-year ahead GDP expectations rose a tenth to 1.8%.
• 2-year ahead CPIF expectations fell a tenth to 1.9%. 2-year ahead GDP expectations rose three tenths to 2.4%.
• 5-year ahead GDP expectations fell a tenth to 2.0%.

• RES 4: 122.71 2.764proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing 
• RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 120.60/121.73 20-day EMA / High Jun 13 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 119.92 @ Close Jul 14
• SUP 1: 119.84 Low Jul 14        
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish. However, for now, a corrective cycle is in play and this has resulted in a breach of support at 120.09, the Jul 23 low. The break signals scope for a deeper retracement, potentially towards 118.87, the May 21 low. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 121.73, the Jun 13 high. Initial resistance to watch is 120.60, the 20-day EMA.