EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Turk Telekom 1Q25 results, solid as expected
(TURKTI: -/BB/BB-)
As expected, a solid set of results, with guidance for FY25 increased. Total Revenues of TRY50.4bn +13% y/y vs broadly in line with expectations of TRY50.3bn. Total subscribers 54.2mn +2.9% y/y and vs 53.6mn in Q125, driven by Mobile +8/3% y/y particularly the post-paid segment +12.9% y/y. Fixed voice continues to be under pressure with subscriber growth -9.3% y/y which is no surprise. ARPU increased low double digits y/y across the business lines except for Mobile which was dragged down by prepaid -12.9% y/y.
- Profitability was strong with EBITDA at TRY 21.26bn vs expectations of TRY30.37bn, and margin expansion of 340bp to 44.1%, due to a lower cost base (opex to sales 57.8% vs 60.7% in Q125). FCF was TRY7.1bn (vs TRY8.3bn in Q125) resulting in net debt decreasing and leverage reducing slightly to 0.68x from 0.73x last quarter and 1.08x a year ago.
- FY 25 guidance has been increased with revenue growth now expected at 10% vs 8-9% previously and EBITDA margin of 41% vs 38-40% previously, which looks light to us given the trajectory in Q1 and Q2.
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BONDS: A Little Firmer
A tick higher in core global FI futures here, but little in the way of concrete news. Bunds pierce overnight highs and yesterday’s best levels.
- Comes as oil ticks lower and the bid in equities stalls with session highs in both S&P 500 e-minis and Euro Stoxx 50 futures intact.
- Scope for some pre-U.S. CPI adjustments evident, although always hard to confirm when such flow is being executed
FOREX: BBDXY Away From Fresh July High
The broader BBDXY has moved away from fresh July highs registered in Asia hours.
- This comes as e-minis trade on the front foot after Nvidia flagged the restart of some chip sales to China, receiving approval from U.S. policymakers to do so.
- Elsewhere, mixed Chinese GDP and monthly economic activity data and softer mainland China equity indices supported USD/CNH, limiting USD losses to some degree.
- EUR/USD holds above initial support at the 20-day EMA (1.1661), after a test overnight.
- Note that GBP/USD breached trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low (1.3430) but has since retaken that level. A more convincing break would strengthen the short-term bearish case.
- German ZEW data is due this morning, but it will be the U.S. CPI release that garners the bulk of the macro attention.
- It’s possible that June’s U.S. CPI report will only be starting to show the delayed impact from the April reciprocal tariffs with the largest impact perhaps only to be seen in July. There appears a rough consensus of three months from tariff implementation to more notable consumer price increases.
- Our full data preview is here: https://media.marketnews.com/USCPI_Prev_Jul2025_07eaecc8d6.pdf
- Canadian CPI is also due.
- Elsewhere, Fedspeak from Bowman, Barr, Barkin and Collins is due throughout the day, while UK Chancellor Reeves & BoE Governor Bailey will speak at the Mansion House event this evening.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (U5) Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 6402.44 1.382 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
- RES 3: 6381.00 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing
- RES 2: 6356.12 1.236 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
- RES 1: 6335.75 Intraday high
- PRICE: 6331.25 @ 07:23 BST Jul 15
- SUP 1: 6246.25 Low Jul 7
- SUP 2: 6211.67/6064.44 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 5811.50 Low May 23
- SUP 4: 5645.75 Low May 7
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Recent activity has resulted in a break of resistance at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high. The breach confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. This was followed by a break of key resistance and a bull trigger at 6277.50, the Feb 21 high. Sights are on 6356.12, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at the 50-day EMA, at 6064.44.
