EM CEEMEA CREDIT: TURK EXIMBANK (EXCTRU): USD 5Y - Guidance

Ramsden's comments on restrictiveness may be pressuring GBP here - as noted above he says he sees neutral as close to 3% and judges that the "policy stance continues to be restrictive."

• GBPUSD weakness presses the pair to new daily lows and trade within range of initial support into 1.3267. A break below would open the 20-day EMA intersecting at 1.3235.
• Concurrently, EURGBP trades a new daily high of 0.8743 but the strength is generally short-lived - mirroring the lack of any follow-through move in SONIA markets.

• Mann: "I continue to believe that the MaPS assessment of a neutral rate of around 3.25-3.5% for Bank Rate is about right. This is higher than the neutral rate embodied in the forecast – where long-term R* was estimated to have to fallen to around 0-1% with a most likely estimate of ¼ percent in real terms. Together with the inflation target this implies a nominal neutral rate of 2¼ percent."
• Some dovish comments in her Report but the above is in line with her previous view.

He hadn't really given a strong view on this before, had just pointed to the 2-4% range.

• "From my perspective, in terms of my assumption for the neutral rate, my starting point is that it has certainly risen since we last provided a full analysis in 2018 and most likely now lies relatively close to the middle of the 2-4% range. I therefore judge that our policy stance continues to be restrictive."
• "Absent any unforeseen shocks, I therefore think we can have increasing confidence that the currently restrictive level of Bank Rate will support the disinflation process, and bring headline inflation below 3% by spring 2026 and back towards the 2% target by 2027, in line with our central forecast. "