COMMODITIES: Tuesday's Sell-Off in WTI Futures Reinforces Bearish Conditions

The trend structure in WTI futures is bullish despite the recent pullback. The move down appears corrective and is allowing an overbought trend reading to unwind. The 20-day EMA, at $74.28, has been pierced. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose the 50-day EMA, at $72.11. A reversal higher would highlight the end of the correction and refocus attention on $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high and a key resistance. Gold traded higher last week. A bull cycle remains in play and the recent breach of resistance at 2726.2, the Dec 12 high, reinforces current conditions. Sights are on $2790.1, the Oct 31 all-time high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. On the downside, the first key support to watch is $2668.8, the 50-day EMA. A reversal lower and a breach of this average would reinstate a bearish threat.

• WTI Crude up $0.18 or +0.24% at $74.75
• Natural Gas down $0.26 or -6.56% at $3.763
• Gold spot down $7.52 or -0.27% at $2763.68
• Copper down $5 or -1.16% at $427
• Silver down $0.11 or -0.37% at $30.473
• Platinum down $6.09 or -0.64% at $945.48

A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact and the move lower from Friday’s high is considered corrective. The move down is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up that highlights a dominant uptrend. The first important support to watch is 5086.38, the 20-day EMA. A resumption of the uptrend would open 5298.50, a Fibonacci projection. The S&P E-Minis contract is starting the week on a bearish note, extending the pullback from Friday’s high. Key short-term support to watch lies at 5961.75, the Jan 16 low. For now, the move down appears corrective, however, a breach of 5961.75 would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 5943.94, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance is unchanged at 6178.75, the Dec 6 high.

• Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 366.18 pts or -0.92% at 39565.8 and the TOPIX ended 7.03 pts higher or +0.26% at 2758.07.
• Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 2.025 pts or -0.06% at 3250.601 and the HANG SENG ended 131.58 pts higher or +0.66% at 20197.77.
• Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 224.91 pts or -1.05% at 21169.14, FTSE 100 lower by 14.67 pts or -0.17% at 8487.68, CAC 40 down 61.52 pts or -0.78% at 7865.18 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 70.38 pts or -1.35% at 5148.9.
• Dow Jones mini down 364 pts or -0.82% at 44238, S&P 500 mini down 113 pts or -1.84% at 6020.75, NASDAQ mini down 670 pts or -3.06% at 21240.5.

The sharp Deepseek-triggered slide in equity futures is helping underpin haven currencies this morning, tipping USD/JPY to new YTD lows. It's GBPJPY that should draw some interest given the risk-off haven rally as well as GBP's recent spell of uncertainty - which drove GBP/JPY 1week vol turnouts to hit levels last seen in the wake of the November US elections.

• While the cross's leg lower today is nearing 1%, it's still clear of Friday lows at 192.08. Importantly, the cross is less exposed to the central bank flurry midweek (Fed, BoC, ECB), so should be more clearly pinned to market sentiment and global equities.
• 2025 range has been defined by the upleg posted off late November lows - with markets finding both the 76.4% retracement of the fade off highs as a decent support mid-January and 194.81, the 38.2% Fib, as a solid inflection point to cap last week's rally.