PRECIOUS METALS: Tuesday's High Caps Rally In Gold; Outlook In Silver Bullish
Gold has rallied 2% from Wednesday’s $3,282.8 low, despite the dollar index consolidating its cautious recovery from last week’s cycle lows. Markets are still awaiting the next technical cue in gold, which has hovered between the bear trigger at $3,248.7 (June 30 low) and resistance at $3,395.1 (June 23 high) through July. The reaction to the latest re-escalation of US tariff rhetoric has been fairly muted overall. Today’s rally has stalled around Tuesday’s $3,345.9 high.
- There may be more interest in Silver, which is up 1.6% today at $37.6, piercing the February 2012 high. The technical trend in silver remains bullish, supported by moving average studies.
- These diverging trends have allowed the Gold/Silver ratio to fully unwind the April 2025 spike higher, currently back at 89.0 and testing the March 28 low of 88.7.
- Elsewhere in precious metals, platinum has lagged peers this week, currently little changed on the session at $1,366. Platinum’s impressive breakout rally through June stalled at a high of $1,436, which subsequently provided resistance on July 2. The pullback over the last two weeks has allowed an overbought condition to unwind, and is considered corrective for now. Initial support is the 20-day EMA at $1326.6
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UK FISCAL: Reeves-"Fiscal Rules Non-Negotiatble"
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves outlining the gov'ts Spending Review, outlining day-to-day spending for the next three years and capital/investment spending for the next four years. The split of the entire 'envelope' (new gov't spending) announced in the Autumn 2024 budget between various gov't departments will be announced.
- Reeves: "My fiscal rules are non-negotiable…and they are the foundation of stability and of investment. My first rule is for stability: That day-to-day government spending should be paid for through tax receipts. [...] This first rule allows me… …as I set out in the Budget… …to allocate £190bn more to the day-to-day running of our public services over the course of the spending review… …compared to the previous government’s plans."
- Reeves: "My second fiscal rule enables me to invest in Britain’s economic renewal…while getting public debt on a downward path. This rule has allowed me to increase public investment by over £100bn in the Autumn…and a further £13bn in the Spring..."
- The chancellor uses the first part of her speech to lambast the main opposition centre-right Conservatives over the 2022 Truss/Kwarteng mini-budget. Notably, she also targets Reform UK, a party with five members of parliament, on its "GBP80B of unfunded commitments. Hightlights the major challenge the gov't perceives from the right-wing populist party (which currently holds a sizeable lead in national opinion polling).
MNI: INVITATION:Livestreamed MNI Connect with Fed Bostic On June 30
You are invited to listen to a Livestreamed MNI Connect Video Conference with Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Raphael Bostic.
Details below:
- Speaker: Raphael Bostic, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President
- Topic of discussion: 'The US Economic Outlook'
- DATE: Mon, 30 Jun 2025
- TIME: 15:00 - 16:00 BST
- This event is on the record and will run as a Zoom Webinar
To register please go to: MNI Webcast Registration
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bull Cycle In Gilts Remain Intact
- In the FI space, the latest pullback in Bund futures still appears corrective - for now - and the trend condition remains bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards 131.85, the Apr 22 high and a key resistance. Key short-term support to watch is 128.97, the May 14 low. First support lies at 130.12, the Jun 5 low.
- Gilt futures traded higher yesterday, resuming their short-term uptrend, strengthening the current bullish theme. This also marks an extension of the breach of resistance at 91.87, the May 20 high. The climb signals scope for a continuation higher and sights are on the 93.00 handle next. Initial firm support to watch lies at 91.56, the Jun 9 low. A clear break of this level is required to signal a possible reversal. For now, short-term weakness is considered corrective.
